MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 1, 1:51 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...932
FXUS64 KMOB 011851
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
151 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
This afternoon through Thursday...
We begin the near term with the forecast area at the base of a
weakness in the mid level geo-potential height field, south of a
more defined deep layer trof of low pressure pivoting eastward
over the Mid MS/Ohio River Valley. The high level flow is
increasingly diffluent, set up by the local area on the eastern
flank of a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis from the
plains into the western Gulf. This has supported a persistence in
large scale lift and organized convection over the north central
Gulf waters. At the surface, a front was draped from the OH River
Valley southwest to across the Mid-South and back into central TX.
Embedded in the mean, diffluent west-northwesterly flow aloft,
mid-level impulses tracking east-southeast will operate on
sufficiently deep environmental moisture (PWAT's:
1.8-2.1") and instability (MuCAPE's 3000-4000 J/KG) to support
increased coverage of showers and storms the remainder of the day
and carrying over into tonight. This is supported by current radar
trends and latest short range ensembles. Wind shear is weak, so
pulse type storms with updrafts of short life-spans is more
favored. Some of the storms though could be strong to marginally
severe generally along and west of I-65. Storms will also be
efficient in producing locally heavy rains which could cause some
isolated instances of mainly nuisance type flooding in lower lying
and poorly drained areas.
As the front eases southward Wednesday, rain chances begin to
taper off up along US Highway 84 while scattered to perhaps
numerous showers and storms continue south of there. Wednesday
night, rain chances become more focused off the coast. The front
settles to the coast Thursday with PoPs dropping off to 10% or
less area-wide.
Wednesday's highs upper 80's/lower 90's heat up into the lower to
mid 90's Thursday. Nights warm.
Friday through Tuesday...
A narrow upper ridge sets up from the Mid to Lower MS River Valley
Friday with the upper trof axis having slipped to the FL
Peninsula. Most of the area looks to remain rain-free Friday,
aside from isolated showers and storms creating a challenge for
July 4th activities. Friday's highs range 92 to 96. Heat indices
somewhat checked with highest range 100 to 105 considering 40-50%
daytime RH. Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90's most
areas Saturday through Tuesday. We look to return to a more
summer-time convective mode Saturday through Tuesday.
Tropics: An area of low pressure could develop from a weakening
front by the weekend anywhere from over the Atlantic waters off
the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some
gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter
as the low drifts and moves little. The latest outlook from NHC calls
for a low potential (30%) of development. Will continue to
monitor in the days ahead. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
southeast through the afternoon before gradually dissipating during
the evening hours. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible in and
around the heavier showers. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Outside of marine storms, no impactful weather expected the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 90 71 93 71 94 73 94 / 50 50 10 10 0 10 0 20
Pensacola 74 89 74 93 74 94 77 93 / 70 60 20 10 0 10 10 20
Destin 77 91 77 94 77 95 79 94 / 70 60 30 10 10 20 10 20
Evergreen 71 91 69 94 69 95 72 96 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 0 10
Waynesboro 71 91 68 92 69 94 71 96 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 71 89 68 90 68 93 71 94 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 0 10
Crestview 71 90 70 94 69 95 72 95 / 50 60 10 10 0 20 0 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 1, 1:51 PM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...---------------
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