Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #552 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE858
AWUS01 KWNH 291949
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 291947Z - 300100Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.
Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.
Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.
The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across
south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.
Weiss
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720
38139668
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #552 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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