JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 24, 2:45 PM EDT679
FXUS63 KJKL 241845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat builds this week. Heat indices peaking in the 100 to 105
degree range are forecast for many locations through Saturday.
- Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually increase
through the end of the week and weekend before peaking early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
An oppressive heat dome continues to reside over the area with not
much in the way of relief in the near term. Given high confidence
in heat indices in the 100 to 107 degree range once again, the
Heat Advisory has been extended through Wednesday.
An isolated shower or storm (or two) will be possible late this
afternoon into the mid-evening period, but chances were too low to
include in the official forecast for any one location at this
time.
The center of the heat dome will retreat a bit east Wednesday,
allowing for some south to southeast push of a bit better
moisture, which may be sufficient to help produce a few showers
and storms, especially over far eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
If storms are able to develop, there will be the potential for one
or more storms to be on the strong side with the potential for
damaging winds.
Overnight lows will continue to threat record high minimum
temperatures for the next couple of nights at the official climate
stations of JKL and LOZ, with overall temperatures ranging from
the upper 60s to mid-70s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
The upper-level high/ridge over the area will gradually weaken
through the end of the week, which will allow for increased
chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. By
early next week, the upper ridge will weaken sufficiently and
retreat from the region to allow for impinging mid-level
westerlies across the Ohio Valley from the north, with a weak
upper level low/trough moving slowly east across the area
providing synoptic lift to end the long-term period.
Temperatures, both for highs and lows, will gradually lower back
toward normal as daily PoPs increase late this week into early
next week. However, with the hot conditions and high humidity,
heat indices will also only gradually lower with time, lowering
from the 100 to 105 range Thursday to more in the 95 to 103 range
Friday, and remaining in/near that range into the weekend. The
best chances for diurnal showers and storms will be each afternoon
and evening, with valley river fog developing late each night
with any partial clearing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
High pressure will remain over the region through the TAF period
resulting in light and variable winds, with calm winds likely
overnight. VFR conditions are expected across the area with the
exception of morning fog, which with this package is being added
at all terminals given good agreement among statistical models.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 24, 2:45 PM EDT---------------
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