PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 23, 1:36 AM CDT127
FXUS63 KPAH 230636
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
136 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily
peak heat index values between 100 to 107 degrees. Nighttime
lows in the mid 70s will provide very little relief.
- Daily rain chances begin today, but remain extremely isolated
and low occurring mainly during peak heating in the
afternoon.
- True relief from the ongoing heat wave may not arrive until
next Monday or Tuesday when a cool down looks to arrive with
better rain chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
A 500 mb ridge of high pressure with heights between 594-596 dam
remains in control over the FA this morning with temperatures in the
upper 70s. Less mixing in the boundary layer will support slightly
higher dewpoints this afternoon in the low to mid 70s and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Even though dewpoints were able
to mix down more yesterday, highs struggled to rise into the mid 90s
over a good portion of the FA due to this occurring late in the
afternoon over a short duration. Given that the NBM has also been
under doing afternoon cu, bumped temperatures slightly lower with
CONSMOS through Tuesday, similar to the ECMX MOS which has had a
better handle on the heat wave so far. These adjustments still yield
heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees as it would not be
surprising to see dewpoints overachieve a little bit. The CAMs
including the HRRR/ARW/FV3 are all hinting at some isolated diurnal
showers or storms this afternoon once the ConvT is reached. Have
added a slight PoP to account for this with WPC QPF even showing
locally over a tenth of an inch possible. Additional slight PoPs are
also progged by the NBM for tomorrow.
With that said, the Heat Advisory remains in effect until Friday
evening as it will not be until after Wednesday when modest height
falls begin to occur with a weakening ridge. Highs in the low to mid
90s with heat index values above 100 degrees remain progged by the
NBM. Pcpn chances look to be mainly silent until Friday when
moisture depth begins to increase in the column into the weekend
that may help to provide a little relief. However, the GFS/ECMWF
both indicate it may not be until next Monday or Tuesday when the
true relief from the ongoing heat wave arrives as a trailing cold
front associated with a 500 mb shortwave digs into the Great Lakes
region. The end of the heat wave will also mean better pcpn chances
as an influx of Gulf moisture occurs over the weekend into early
next week. For this reason, it is not clear yet if the Heat Advisory
will need to be extended one more time beyond Friday due to the
aformentioned NBM biases.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Light flow expected tonight increasing to between 5-7 knots from
the south on Monday. While patchy fog is possible across the
region, don't expect any impacts to area terminals. SCT bases
between 035-050 are expected on Monday. VFR conditions forecast
to prevail.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 23, 1:36 AM CDT---------------
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