LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 6:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...223
FXUS63 KLMK 191052
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
652 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and storms remain possible today.
* Mainly dry weather Friday through the weekend, with building heat
and oppressive humidity continuing well into next week. Highs in
the 90s with heat indices near 100 Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Our area is located underneath an upper level trough axis, with the
attendant cold front still to our west this morning. As the cold
front pushes east of the Wabash River later this morning, it will be
the lifting mechanism to fire off additional scattered showers and
storms across the area, mainly for the late morning and afternoon.
Ahead of the front, WAA regime will help temps warm into the 80s,
along with sfc dewpoints in the upper 60s. We'll be able to realize
marginal destabilization this afternoon, resulting in scattered
showers and storms to pop up along the front. Wind shear will be
weak, which will help keep storms unorganized. PWATs will be less
than recent days, but some brief heavy rain rates could be possible
from any stronger storms.
The cold front will sweep through the area later in the day,
resulting in an end to precip. Clouds will clear out as well,
leading to mostly clear skycover by the evening hours. Temps will be
slightly cooler tonight due to the post-frontal airmass, with temps
expected to be in the mid 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Drier weather is to be expected for Friday and into the weekend as
anomalous upper ridging will build across the central US.
Reinforcing WAA pattern and expansive sfc high pressure will support
sfc temps rising well above normal for the weekend and into early
next week, with the potential for temps to hit the 90s.
Just how hot our ambient temps get remains a bit uncertain, given
how saturated our ground is from all the recent rain, and very green
vegetation. Despite this uncertainty, the bigger story may be the
combination of well above normal temperatures and the humid airmass,
and the prolonged stretch of several days with temps pushing into
the 90s. It's possible that after several days, we may be able to
dry out by early next week and have better chances for temps hitting
the mid 90s.
Dewpoints are forecast to return to the 70s by the weekend,
and if our temperatures are able to hit 90, that would yield heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s and approaching 100. By the middle
of next week, temps could be pushing into the mid 90s, with heat
indices over 100 being more probable for a few days in a row.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025
MVFR cigs currently impacting the TAF sites will improve to VFR
later this morning. Some isolated showers and a few storms are
possible today, but coverage will be much less. Due to this, not
confident enough to include mention in TAFs, as some terminals may
remain completely dry the rest of today. VFR conditions will remain,
with clouds clearing out by this evening. Light winds and clear
skies, combined with saturated ground, will support fog development
tomorrow morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 6:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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