MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:02 AM CDT ...New Aviation...073
FXUS64 KMOB 130602
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
...Through Friday night...
An upper low over the eastern Central Plains meanders north on the
northwest side of a stronger upper high centered off the Florida
Atlantic coast through Friday before opening and starting to move
east over Mid Mississippi River Valley. The upper high flattens a
bit in the process. A surface ridge stretching west over the
Southeast shifts south to over the northern Gulf coast in response.
A weak impulse is swinging northeast along the southeast side of the
upper low. In combination with a moist airmass over the Southeast
and Lower Mississippi River Valley (precipitable h20 values
averaging between 1.8" and 2.1"), and a seabreeze moving inland,
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and are moving
north over the forecast area this afternoon. Guidance is advertising
another shortwave passing over the forecast area Friday, so am
expecting another round of seabreeze initiated convection
Friday/Friday evening. Strong to marginally severe storms continue
to be possible this afternoon and again Friday. MLCapes averaging in
the 2000-2500J/kg range, with DCapes in the 700-1100J/kg range are
expected each afternoon. Soundings show a generally unidirectional
wind profile, with Bulk wind Shear values below 20kts. Waterspouts
remain a possiblity in the late morning to early morning time frame.
Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected
through the Near Term. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around
90 expected with Heat Indices topping out in the upper 90s to low
100s each day. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along
the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast.
A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Friday night.
/16
...Saturday through Thursday...
Through the weekend, the shortwave trough passes north of the
forecast area, leaving a mean upper trough over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. The developing upper trough will shift the
upper high over the Gulf/FL/northern Caribbean eastward. The upper
high reorganizes off the Carolina/Ga coast (GFS, and ensembles), or
over the northern Caribbean (ECMWF) as shortwave energy moves
through the Mississippi River upper trough and passes over the
Southeast. Moisture levels remain high through the extended as the
surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf continues to
pump moisture inland. Add in several impulses passing over/near the
forecast area, seabreeze initiated showers and thunderstorms remain
a possibility through the Extended. Strong to severe pulse type
storms in the afternoon/evening also remain a possibility through
the period.
High temperatures see a bit of an uptick through the weekend, with
the more northerly position of the upper high bringing more
subsidence to the forecast area. High temperatures rise from the
upper 80s to around 90 Saturday to 89 to 94 over most of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday. Heat Indices in the 98 to
104 degree range are expected through the Extended. Low temperatures
see a rise through the period, from low 70s north of the I-10
corridor to mid 70s to near 80 south Saturday night, to mid 70s
north of I-10 to upper 70s north of I-10 to around 80 south.
Continued organized onshore flow will bring a Moderate Risk of rip
currents over the weekend into the middle of next week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the overnight with light
southerly winds. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the seabreeze during the mid morning approaching noon. More
widespread showers and storms will approach the area from the
west during the afternoon leading to reductions in visbys and
ceilings to MVFR and IFR across the area. Storms should subside by
early evening as conditions return to VFR. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may
contain waterspouts in the late night/early morning period.
Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds
and seas being possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 90 75 90 74 89 75 89 / 20 80 20 80 30 80 30 70
Pensacola 77 88 78 89 77 88 77 88 / 40 80 30 80 40 80 40 70
Destin 79 89 79 90 79 89 79 89 / 60 80 50 80 50 80 40 70
Evergreen 71 90 71 90 71 91 72 91 / 20 80 20 90 30 80 30 70
Waynesboro 71 91 71 91 70 92 72 91 / 20 80 30 80 30 80 30 70
Camden 71 88 71 88 71 89 72 89 / 20 80 40 80 30 80 30 70
Crestview 71 90 72 91 72 91 72 91 / 30 80 20 90 30 90 30 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:02 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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