CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 3:41 PM EDT939
FXUS61 KCLE 141941
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
341 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front gradually drifts south of the area today
before high pressure briefly builds in from the north tonight.
This front lifts back north as a warm front Monday night as low
pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will
move east across the area on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough extends from northeast
Indiana towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley (AR/MO/IL/KY/TN area). An
area of confluence from the central part of this trough into the
northeastern quadrant (which is collocated with the surface
stationary front) will yield a narrow corridor of shower and
thunderstorms into the southern part of our forecast area across
central Ohio with a few isolated showers elsewhere. Coverage is
expected to be a lot less than what we saw across northern Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania earlier, though there could be isolated
instances minor flooding where any thunderstorms are able to
persist, especially given very moist environment and somewhat slow
storm motions of around 10-20 knots (depending on exact location).
The stationary front gradually sags south of the forecast area and a
drier airmass associated with high pressure builds in from the
north. Aside from some isolated showers skirting across the southern
part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, the rest of the near
term period should be precipitation-free. Patchy fog may be possible
in some locations tonight and again Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
That front gradually lifts north across the area Monday afternoon
into Monday night, with persistent southwest flow advecting
increasingly warm, moist air into the region Monday night through
Tuesday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible
Monday afternoon in our south and east, becoming increasingly more
likely by Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most model guidance has Tuesday
with relatively benign thunderstorm activity Tuesday
afternoon/evening due to modest instability and rather limited
shear. The 12Z NAM randomly has like 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and 40
knots of deep-layer shear, which is a massive outlier compared to
most other model guidance. It develops this in response to a compact
shortwave trough currently over the Great Plains region, with
convective influence causing it to become more intense than would
otherwise expect. Currently going to throw out this model due to it
being an extreme outlier but could be worth watching in the coming
days.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level trough approaches from the west as it moves into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is generally
when warmth, moisture, and synoptic-scale lift will peak for the
most likely precipitation chances of the work week (60-70% PoPs on
Wednesday and Wednesday night). Based on current model guidance,
there is a good chance for severe weather, with MUCAPE around 1500-
2000 J/kg and 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Current D5 SPC outlook
has primary severe weather risk located to our west, though the past
few runs of model guidance have a slightly more open trough rather
than a closed low, progressing a bit faster (shifting the threat a
bit farther east). 00Z GFS ML severe weather probabilities are
similar to what SPC has, though 00Z ENS ML has severe weather
probabilities maximized farther east over the Ohio Valley, which
better matches the trends observed in the broader model data. Either
way, Wednesday will be worth watching.
By Thursday, most model guidance have the low and associated upper-
level trough into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with the cold
front moving through. Any showers and thunderstorms will likely be
associated with either the primary cold front or a secondary cold
front/trough during the afternoon/evening hours. It's possible there
could be a few stronger storms, especially if the slower model
guidance is correct, though it seems unlikely as a reversal in
trends would be needed. Friday should should quiet as high pressure
builds in, and despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures really
won't cool down too much.
Saturday onward looks active as persist southwest flows advect warm,
moist air to the region. Already have mid to upper 80s in the
temperature forecast with our first 90 degree days possible late
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Non-VFR conditions, ranging between MVFR to LIFR, are expected
to persist across the area into the early overnight hours as a
very slow moving boundary continues to sag south across the
area. Heavy rain showers from this morning have primarily
diminished at this point, leaving scattered light showers this
afternoon. These showers may briefly result in local
visibilities dropping to as low as 3SM, however the bulk of
diminished conditions are coming as a result of ceilings between
400-1500 ft across the area. All precipitation should primarily
end between 22-00Z this evening as high pressure nudges south.
This should allow conditions for terminals along the lakeshore
to rebound to high end MVFR or even VFR by Sunday late
morning/early afternoon. Elsewhere, patchy fog is expected to
develop overnight, possibly resulting in prolonged IFR
conditions. By late Sunday morning, fog should diminish and
ceilings begin to lift, allowing all terminals to at least
rebound to MVFR by Sunday afternoon.
North to northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots will continue through
the entire TAF period.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms
this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A nearly stationary boundary lingers south of the lakeshore today,
allowing for winds to persist from the northeast at 15-20 knots this
afternoon. These conditions have allowed for waves along the
lakeshore to build to 2-4 feet, with highest waves across the
central and western basins. Opting to maintain the Small Craft
Advisory through 00Z this evening given that wave heights will
continue to reach around 4 feet, but opting to get rid of the Beach
Hazard given the wind direction and moderate risk for rip currents.
As a high pressure system nudges south, winds tonight will weaken to
5-10 knots but remain from the northeast. A brief increase in winds
up to 15 knots may occur Sunday afternoon, but should be very
marginal for any additional headlines needed. By Sunday night, the
high pressure again becomes dominant with northeast winds of 5-10
knots. Winds finally shift on Tuesday to gain a more south-southwest
direction as a warm front lifts north across the area. As the parent
low moves across the region midweek, winds are expected to increase
from the southwest to 15-20 knots and will be another period to
watch for additional headlines.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
LEZ143>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 14, 3:41 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
