BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 2:39 PM EDT370
FXUS61 KBOX 091839
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
239 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Considerable cloudiness and below normal temperatures are on tap for
today, but dry weather dominates other than a passing spot shower or
two. An upper level disturbance will bring showers and embedded
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall on Tuesday. Dry and warmer
weather follows for Wednesday and especially Thursday...but it looks
to turn cooler again next weekend with perhaps a period of unsettled
weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Considerable clouds today but with just a spot shower or two
* Rather cool today...Highs in the 60s to near 70 mildest CT Valley
Details...
Today...
Another piece of upper level shortwave energy will cross the region
today. Forcing/deeper moisture is rather limited and high pressure
over the Maritimes will feed some low level dry air into the region
as well. So while we expect an abundance of clouds the vast majority
of the day will feature dry weather...other than the risk for a spot
shower two.
The abundance of clouds with onshore flow will result in a rather
cool day for June standards. Highs today will be in the 60s to near
70 with the mildest of those readings in the CT River Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Clouds and fog tonight with just a few spot showers
* Showers & embedded t-storms with locally heavy rainfall Tue
Details...
Tonight...
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to result in
rather cloudy skies tonight...but with nothing more than a few spot
showers. Areas of fog area also expected with the moist onshore
flow and cooling boundary layer. Low temps tonight will mainly
be between 55 and 60.
Tuesday...
A stronger piece of shortwave energy will approach from the west
Tue. This will induce a modest southwest LLJ that will intersect a
frontal boundary at the surface. Deeper moisture will advect into
the region as well with Pwats increasing to between 1.50 and 2
inches. Guidance also indicates MUCapes of 400-800 J/KG which will
combined with the forcing/deeper moisture. The result will be
periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms with pockets of heavy
rainfall. Brief poor drainage street flooding is possible...but we
are not expecting any significant flooding issues or severe weather
with mainly elevated instability.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to the middle
70s...but it will be a bit more humid than today as low level
moisture returns.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry Wed through at least Thu, then increasing chances for rain
Friday into the weekend, especially Saturday.
* Heat ramps up Wed/Thu, then cooling down into the weekend.
Mid-level ridging and a surface high building over the Appalachian
region will keep conditions sunny and dry. Temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 80s thanks to warm advection and dry,
downsloping west winds. Flow becomes more zonal Friday, and rain
chances will increase going into what could be another wet weekend
as another coastal low may be in the vicinity. It's still too soon
to write another Saturday off as a washout, but current NBM
probabilites for measurable rain are around 40-50% for RI and
eastern MA and 60-70% for northern CT and western MA. This weekend's
temperatures will cool to the upper 60s to low 70s as easterly flow
once again moves into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This Afternoon and Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Onshore flow will result in MVFR-IFR conditions persisting
through tonight. Some localized LIFR conditions possible
especially tonight along with areas of fog. Lower confidence on
the timing of the fog. Highest chances for seeing fog/LIFR will
be over the Cape and Islands. Low chance of an isolated shower.
E winds 5 to 12 knots this afternoon, slightly stronger over
the Cape/Islands. Lighter E/NE flow overnight less than 10 kts.
Becoming SE for the Cape/Islands.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
IFR-low end MVFR conditions Tuesday. Expect periods of showers
in the morning with higher chances 16-22Z for widespread rain
and a few embedded thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
possible. Light E winds becoming SE less than 10 kts.
Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.
A few residual showers about early Tuesday evening otherwise
expect a dry night. Ceilings gradually improve through the night
toward VFR. Light W winds. Chance for patchy FG/BR in spots.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
IFR conditions with a chance for LIFR conditions tonight. Lower
confidence in FG potential/timing tonight. Some guidance has FG
arrive as early as 23Z this evening. This has resulted in a low
probability for now until we can more clearly see the trends
for this evening.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today and Tuesday...High Confidence.
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes today will shift east of
that region by Tuesday. This will continue result in easterly winds
but gradient will remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small
craft advisory thresholds through the period. The main issue for
mariners will be areas of fog...which may be locally dense at
times especially overnight into Tuesday morning.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy
fog.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/McMinn
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...Dooley/Mensch
MARINE...Frank/McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 2:39 PM EDT----------------
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