CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 6:25 AM EDT147
FXUS61 KCLE 111025
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
625 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday. A
cold front will move south through the area by late Thursday
into Friday. This front will stall just south of Lake Erie on
Friday and linger into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period as
high pressure across the Lower Ohio Valley influences our
weather pattern into Thursday. Otherwise, a weak cold front will
sag south across the Great lakes on Thursday which could result
in a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
For today, upper-atmosphere haze should gradually improve as the
main plume shifts further east, following the direction of the upper-
level jet stream. A tight pressure gradient between a surface
low to the north and high pressure to the south will result in
periodic gusty southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph this afternoon.
Above- average temperatures will be the norm over the next
couple of days with highs generally in the mid-80s under mostly
sunny skies. By Thursday, a weak cold front will sag south
across the Great Lakes, with onshore winds augmented by a lake
breeze in the afternoon. A weak convergent boundary along this
front could result in a few isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, though there remains some uncertainty on the
amount of low-level moisture present.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will have already moved south of Lake Erie and into
the forecast area by Thursday night. Despite the presence of the
front, it will be dry Thursday night as any lingering instability
wanes. An upper-level trough approaches from the west and will begin
to impact the region on Friday, with increasing deep-layer moisture
and broad-scale ascent. This will lead to gradually increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday
night.
Rain and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest on
Saturday as the upper trough moves across the region. PoPs have
increased to the 70-90% range on Saturday with PWATs around 1.7
inches which is nearing the max for climatological values (max is
1.81" from ILN sounding climatology), and around the 90th percentile
from the ENS/NAEFS. There is a broad marginal risk WPC ERO for
Saturday to highlight the low end risk of localized flooding,
primarily due to the above normal moisture content but also because
there is some potential for storm development and training of storms
along the stationary front that linger over our area. We'll get a
better picture of the precipitation and flooding potential once we
get into range of regional models and CAMs.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance continue to differ slightly on the placement of the
front Sunday and into early next week. Most ensemble solutions
suggest the front will gradually sag south in the wake of the
departing upper-level trough, though there are enough models that
have that front nearby with showers and storms remaining possible,
especially in the southern portion of our forecast area. For now,
broad PoPs in the 20-50% range remain in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Upper-air wildfire smoke will be
replaced with arriving high cirrus through this afternoon and
evening. Winds this morning are currently favoring a slight
southwest direction, around 5 knots. Winds will become
predominately out of the southwest by later this morning and
afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 22 knots.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Thursday. Non-VFR possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday, becoming more
likely on Saturday in widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Non-VFR may linger into Sunday in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds of around 10-15 knots are expected today and tonight
before a cold front moves south across Lake Erie Thursday morning,
allowing for winds to rapidly shift to out of the northeast. Winds
generally waver between east and northeast through the remainder of
the forecast with speeds generally around 10-15 knots. A fewer high
resolution models, such as the HRRR, and hinting at possible local
enhancements to the wind speed in the western basin at times to near
20 knots, which may things a bit choppy at times. We'll have to
watch for the need for short-duration small craft advisories, though
it's unclear right now when the best chance for that is.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 6:25 AM EDT---------------
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