MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 3:00 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...224
FXUS64 KMOB 030800
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
An upper low over the northeastern Gulf meanders north over the
Southeast on the west side of an upper ridge that has settled over
the East Coast. The upper low opens into an open trough as it moves
inland and begins to become absorbed by the upper ridge. An
associated surface trough over the eastern Gulf moves north over the
Gulf and inland, bringing Gulf moisture north (with precipitable h20
levels rising into the 1.8"-2.0" range over the forecast area by the
end of the day Wednesday). Showers and thunderstorms move north over
the forecast area, with the marine portion the main area affected
today, and inland portions tonight into mid week. Instability is
modest at best (MUCapes < 1000J/kg). DCapes on model soundings are
600J/kg or less. Better upper dynamics are expected to remain well
east of the forecast area. All in all, am not expecting any of the
thunderstorms to become strong to marginally severe. Also, with the
growing season in full force and a lack of overrunning storms, water
issues are not expected to be a problem except in poor drainage
areas.
Increasing coverage of rain will help to counterbalance subsidence
from the eastern Conus upper ridge. High temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s today drop into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. Low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday nights.
A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected later Wednesday as the
surface trough over the eastern Gulf brings increasing onshore
swell to area beaches. /16
Thursday through Monday
An upper trof over the extreme southeastern states on Thursday,
the remnants of an upper low, slowly moves off into the western
Atlantic through Friday. A modest surface trof will be oriented
across the forecast area on Thursday, associated with a surface
low over/near the Carolinas. There is uncertainty with the
position of the surface trof on Friday, which may weakly meander over
the area or shift to just north of the area while the surface low
lingers off the coast of North Carolina. The presence of the
surface trof will support likely pops for much of the area on
Thursday, then good chance to likely pops follow for Friday as the
surface trof may continue to aid in convective development.
A broad upper trof pattern centered over the northern/central
Plains on Friday evolves into a steadily amplifying upper trof
over the eastern states over the weekend into Monday. A surface
low is anticipated to develop over the interior eastern states in
response on Friday, and either moves further off to the north over
the weekend or merges with the surface low off the coast of North
Carolina which also moves well off to the north. Either way,
this pattern brings a surface trof to near the northern portion
of the forecast area on Saturday which lingers near this position
into Sunday. On Monday, the surface trof, or frontal boundary by
this point, finally progresses into the forecast area, possibly as
far as to near the coast. The evolving upper trof pattern allows
for a vigorous series of shortwaves to move across the forecast
area from Saturday into Monday, and with the surface trof in the
proximity and eventually moving into the area, this will support
likely pops on Saturday then likely to categorical pops for Sunday
and Monday. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Thursday
into Friday, then a moderate risk follows for Saturday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
VFR conditions are expected through 00z Wednesday, then begin to
drop, especially closer to the coast, as showers and thunderstorms
move north over the northern Gulf. Light winds overnight will
become a southeasterly around 10 knots by Tuesday afternoon, and
remain there as a surface trough begins to move north over the
eastern Gulf.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025
A surface trough moving north over the eastern Gulf will bring an
increase in onshore flow to moderate to at times strong into mid
week. Exercise Caution level winds are expected late Tuesday into
Wednesday. As the surface trough moves inland, the onshore flow will
ease to low to at times moderate, but remain onshore as a surface
ridge stretching west over the southeast reasserts itself.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 89 72 88 70 87 72 90 75 / 10 20 70 20 60 10 50 10
Pensacola 87 75 86 73 86 75 88 78 / 30 30 90 50 70 20 60 20
Destin 88 75 87 75 87 77 88 79 / 30 40 90 60 70 30 60 30
Evergreen 92 67 89 68 89 69 92 72 / 10 10 70 20 70 10 60 10
Waynesboro 91 67 89 68 90 70 93 72 / 0 0 50 10 50 10 50 10
Camden 89 68 87 68 87 69 90 72 / 0 0 50 10 50 10 50 10
Crestview 92 68 89 68 89 69 91 72 / 30 20 90 30 80 20 70 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday
afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Friday
afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 3, 3:00 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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