ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 9:08 AM EDT918
FXUS61 KILN 311308
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
908 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will clear the area this morning. High pressure
will then build in. There will be a warming trend early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A sheared out short wave will drop south southeast across the region
today. The trailing end of a cold front will extend from southeast
to northwest across the Tri-State, slowly sagging south of the area
through the day. This could be a focus for some clouds and perhaps an
isolated shower. Low level flow coming off of Lakes Huron and Erie
could also bring some clouds into central Ohio. There will be a well
mixed boundary layer, so winds will pick up and gust to around 25 mph
this afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build in through the period. Some thin high
clouds may pass across the region tonight into Sunday morning. And a
few cumulus may develop with heating on Sunday. With a dry
atmosphere, there will be a fairly large diurnal range. Temperatures
will cool off into the mid 40s, 10 or more degrees below normal, with
readings rebounding back into the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mean H5 trough axis begins to propagate more towards the Atlantic
coast Sunday night, eventually being replaced by a longwave ridge.
Sunday night will be the last time in the extended forecast period
that overnight lows will dip into the 40s for the majority of our
CWA.
Broad surface high pressure settles into the region on Monday
underneath the H5 ridge. This will be the start of warming trend as
daytime highs will climb back into the upper 70s and perhaps a few
locations hitting the 80 degree mark. Dewpoints still remain
relatively dry on Monday, but as the surface high shifts more
towards the southeastern CONUS on Tuesday, return flow will begin to
increase. The result will be a greater influx of warm, humid air
from the Gulf. Highs on Tuesday are expected to exceed 80 degrees
area-wide, with a better response in dewpoints as they climb to near
60, making the air feel more humid.
Wednesday appears to be the warmest day of the week as highs climb
into the middle 80s to near 90. The forecast continues to trend dry
through the start of the work week, but models continue to agree on
increasing PoPs late Wednesday into Thursday as a boundary lays out
from the Great Lakes all the way down into the Texas Panhandle. The
slow moving boundary will provide the necessary forcing for shower
and thunderstorm development through the end of the work week,
eventually pushing southeast of our fa Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Area of low clouds will skirt by the Columbus terminals early in the
period. This could result in a brief period of MVFR ceilings.
Otherwise VFR will prevail with either some mid clouds or high based
cumulus during the day. Winds will increase with gusts at or above 20
kt. Winds will decrease towards 00Z and clouds will diminish with a
thin high deck spreading across the region overnight.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 9:08 AM EDT---------------
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