CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 24, 1:52 AM EDT275
FXUS61 KCLE 240552
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
152 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds out of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley this weekend as low pressure over New England
slowly exits east. Low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley
towards the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:25 PM Update...
Forecast remains mostly unchanged this evening. Low temperatures
will drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.
Lingering cloud cover persists downwind of Lake Erie with mainly
clear conditions likely persisting across central Ohio. Areas
that are able to remain clear overnight tonight will have the
better potential for patchy fog to develop. Additionally, spots
that remain clear may drop into the mid 30s, but slightly
elevated wind speeds should curb any frost development.
Previous discussion...
We are on the backside of upper trough and associated low
pressure centered over New England. This troughing and low will
only slowly depart into the weekend as high pressure builds out
of the Upper Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.
A subtle vort max and associated surface trough axis extends
from central Lake Erie into Northwest OH as of the 3 PM hour and
will continue southeast through early this evening. An increase
in clouds and a few brief/light showers are accompanying this
feature. Otherwise, some lake effect rain showers will re-
develop this evening and continue at times into Saturday across
far Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Rain amounts should generally
be under 0.10" with any lake effect showers. Western and
southwestern portions of our forecast area should see skies go
mostly clear tonight once this afternoon's cumulus dissipate,
while locations east-southeast of Lake Erie remain cloudier
tonight. Cumulus will re-develop out west by Saturday afternoon
as some lake effect clouds continue to stream in farther east,
leading to a partly sunny day overall. Some lake effect clouds
may continue Saturday night with cumulus decreasing west.
Lows tonight will generally be in the 40s. A swath from
Northwest OH towards the Central Highlands will see more
clearing and make a run towards the 30s, especially in more
sheltered valleys across the Central Highlands where winds will
have an easier time decoupling. With daytime highs not getting
to 60 and dew points around 40 this afternoon, the airmass is
marginally cool enough for frost and do have a patchy mention in
a few counties from Marion over to Knox and up towards Wayne.
There are enough questions regarding how quickly skies clear
tonight and how quickly winds can decouple, which adds enough
uncertainty on top of the short nights this time of year to
preclude any frost-related headlines. Highs on Saturday rebound
several degrees into the low to mid 60s, with PA likely staying
in the 50s. Lows Saturday night will again be in the 40s, with
some upper 30s again possible from interior eastern OH into
interior Northwest PA if sufficient clearing occurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridge of high pressure will build from the Hudson Bay to
Great Lakes Sunday through Monday. The ridge will slowly migrate
east toward the Northeast. Aloft, the pesky upper level low will
finally move east of Maine taking the mid layer moisture east early
Sunday. Can not say abundant sunshine is on tap for Sunday as
residual moisture will linger on the backside of the system.
Therefore, will maintain some clouds across the area but mainly dry
for Sunday except northwest Pennsylvania. There will be opportunity
for breaks in clouds and a slight increase in thickness layers will
allow high temps to climb in 60s on Sunday and upper 60s to near 70
on Sunday. Nearly clear skies Sunday night into Monday morning will
yield morning lows in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A muted upper level ridge will slowly move east across the
Mississippi Valley to the east coast Monday through Wednesday. An
upper level storm system will develop lee of the Rockies on Sunday
and push moisture across the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. Along
with a slight lift and moisture rain chances will be introduce into
the forecast across central Ohio during the day on Tuesday and the
rest of the forecast area Tuesday night. At the same, a closed low
will deepen over the Northern Plains Tuesday and slowly push east
Wednesday through Friday. The close proximity of the low and
afternoon surface heating will produce a chance of showers Wednesday
through Friday.
Temps will remain slightly be more seasonable, but still several
degrees below normal. Expect highs in the mid/upper 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday to moderate into the upper 60s/low 70s Thursday and
Friday. Expect lows in the 50s can be expected each morning
Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mostly VFR conditions are present across the airspace this
morning with some MVFR ceilings in NE OH and NW PA in some lake
enhanced rain showers continuing to pester the region. The MVFR
deck is largely limited to just areas with rain returns on
radar and believe that only the KERI terminal will be the only
one impacted by MVFR today. Elsewhere, some ceilings in the 3500
to 5000 ft range continue to move east and will exit the
terminals later this morning. After a period of some clear
conditions, these VFR ceilings will return this afternoon before
being ousted this evening with high pressure entering from the
northwest. Ceilings will erode from west to east tonight with
all terminals at VFR by the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
mainly northwest with some intermittent westerlies at times.
Some stronger winds are possible at KERI with the rain showers
and enhanced flow off Lake Erie and some brief gusts over 20 kt
are expected.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Breezy and choppy conditions are expected through this evening on
the Lake with NW winds of 15-25 knots and waves of 4 to 6 foot
waves. The largest waves will be in the central and eastern basins,
so Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for a high
risk of rip currents through this evening. Winds and waves will
gradually subside after midnight as west winds will decrease to 10
to 15 knots by Saturday morning. Easing of winds will continue with
NW winds of 5-10 knots by Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will turn
NE at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday, increasing to 10-20 knots
Monday night and Tuesday. Winds and waves will be near Small Craft
headline criteria by Tuesday in the western and central basins given
the long NE fetch down the lake.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...13/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...FZ
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 24, 1:52 AM EDT---------------
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