ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 1:55 AM EDT525
FXUS61 KILN 220555
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low over the Great Lakes will keep cool and
unsettled conditions in the forecast through Thursday. High pressure
will offer drier conditions for Friday into Saturday with rain
chances increasing Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure tracks
south of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A stacked low pressure system remains parked northeast of the Ohio
Valley tonight. CAA continues through the overnight which allows
lows to drop to near 50. Winds remain around 10-20 mph through the
night. Clouds and light showers persist in the cool, moist setup.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Upper low persists over the Great Lakes Thursday/Thursday night.
Result will be plenty of clouds and some showers during the period.
Highest PoPs favor the northern portion of the CWA. Tight gradient
will continue to support northwest wind gusts 20-25 mph at times.
Highs on Thursday will be cool, ranging from the mid 50s north to
lower 60s south. Lows Thursday night may drop below 40 in some
locations across the northwest, with lower to mid 40s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period will be characterized by below normal temps and
periodic chances for showers, with the overall potential for
hazardous weather looking quite low through early next week.
An expansive mid/upper level low will churn about the ern Great
Lakes into the northeast CONUS for the end of the workweek, with
cool cyclonic flow being maintained over the OH Vly through this
time. As several vorticity lobes pinwheel around the larger-scale
low center, some ISO light SHRA will be possible locally through
Friday afternoon, especially in the presence of anomalously cool
temps aloft. The primary uncertainty on Friday relates to moisture
availability as very dry air which will be settling into the region
by then, which may limit the overall SHRA coverage locally. There
looks to be at least /some/ low-end potential for a few SHRA or
sprinkles in parts of the area through the afternoon, despite a dry
blended fcst. At the very least, do think that we will end up a bit
cloudier as well, especially in the presence of those cool temps
aloft. Highs will generally top out in the lower 60s to upper 60s
from NE to SW, respectively, which is about 10-12 degrees below
seasonal norms.
For Friday night, the maintenance of some light NW sfc flow and
/some/ expansive cloud cover should inhibit frost potential, despite
chilly air temps into the upper 30s and lower 40s during the
nighttime into early Saturday morning.
Drier conditions are expected on Saturday as the stacked low lumbers
off to the E, with NW flow becoming established in the OH Vly into
early this weekend with subtle midlevel height rises nudging into
the region. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, but still below
seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to upper 60s with a mix of
sun and clouds.
Into Sunday and early next week, the large-scale negative height
anomalies in the NE CONUS will stretch back to the W through the
Great Lakes as zonal flow becomes established from the mid MS Rvr
Vly through the srn OH Vly. As S/W energy pivots to the SE from the
upper Midwest into the south-central plains by Sunday/Monday,
another quasi-zonal baroclinic zone will tighten, providing a focus
for several rounds of SHRA/TSRA activity during this time from the
central plains into the srn OH Vly and TN Vly. The latitudinal
placement of this front will ultimately dictate which areas remain
dry and which ones will be susceptible to episodic storm chances
Sunday through much of early next week. Right now, ensemble guidance
supports this axis to initially become established S of the ILN FA
on Sunday, which would keep most spots near/N of the OH Rvr dry
through Sunday night, at the very least. But this is far from
certain, and therefore chance PoPs will be maintained, especially
near/S of the OH Rvr, late Sunday into Monday morning.
Ensemble guidance has shown a subtle shift to a more well-defined
system emerging into the OH Vly for Monday/Tuesday of next week,
which should effectively shunt the dry air entrenched over the
region this weekend off to the E, allowing for a return of rain
chances through the first part of next workweek. The track of the
sfc low looks to be such that severe weather is not a big concern
locally at this juncture given the lack of instby and disconnection
from the richer LL moisture, but another bout of steady rain may
become increasingly likely by Memorial Day through Tuesday as this
slow-moving system crawls E through the region. The details of this
will come into better focus in the coming days.
A slow warming trend is expected Sunday into early next week,
although this may be briefly modulated by expansive/persistent
clouds and rain Monday/Tuesday. Nevertheless, below normal temps are
expected, through the entirety of the long term period, with a
warming trend likely holding off until at least midweek of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system will rotate across the Great
Lakes today into tonight. With plenty of low level moisture in place,
MVFR cigs will persist through much of the day across our area with
some occasional IFR cigs possible through the morning hours.
Scattered shower activity will become more numerous later this
morning and into this afternoon as some weak instability develops.
This could lead to occasional MVFR vsby restrictions with some of
the heavier showers. Shower activity will taper off heading into this
evening with cigs lifting back into VFR late in the TAF period.
Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist with gusts to around 25
knots possible later this morning and into this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 22, 1:55 AM EDT---------------
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