JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 2:42 PM EDT560
FXUS63 KJKL 141842
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
242 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower/storm chances linger for much of this week and through
early next week, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours.
- There is the potential for isolated organized thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday night, with a a greater risk for
organized thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.
- Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through today, then
moderate to about 10 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday -
back closer to normal from Saturday through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
Upper trough axis departs to the north and east through tonight, but
a shortwave within upstream west-northwesterly flow will move across
the area this evening into the overnight and bring an increased
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has continued to
expand the Marginal Risk for severe storms this evening through
much of the overnight to include all the but the far northeastern
areas. Isolated damaging winds and/or large hail will be possible
with the strongest of these storms.
Mid-level height rises occur late tonight through the day Thursday
behind tonight's shortwave passage, and should keep any shower and
thunderstorm threat relatively isolated if not completely
suppressed, but another shortwave will arrive Thursday night and be
accompanied by mid-level height falls. The SPC has issued a Day 2
Marginal Risk for severe storms, mainly for the chance of evening
and overnight storms, though it is possible the primary threat holds
off until or after daybreak Friday.
With rising heights and suppressed cloud cover and convection
Thursday, high temperatures will warm significantly into the mid- to
upper-80s, with overnight lows Thursday night remaining quite mild
in the upper-60s to lower-70s within a warm advection regime and
plentiful clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 535 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft for the bulk of the long term portion
of the forecast. They all depict the exiting of a weakening trough
over the eastern Ohio Valley on Thursday while the system
progresses to the northeast and out of the picture through the
rest of the week. This is upstream of ridging expanding over the
central Gulf Coast states through Friday. The sharp trough is
still on track to pivot from the Northern Plains into, and
through, the Upper Midwest with the majority of model differences
for the period. The GFS suite remains quicker, stronger, and
further northwest with the core of this trough than the ECMWF's
operational and ensemble runs. As this large wave passes it will
bring 5h height falls to Kentucky along with a brush by of its mid
level energy late Thursday into Friday and again with another
impulse passing west to east late Friday into Saturday morning.
For the weekend, broad troughing will hold forth over the Upper
Midwest, northern Great Lakes, and south central Canada while
ridging is located over the Gulf of America. Between these
dominant features, mid-level zonal flow will work west to east
through Kentucky while carrying periodic packets of energy. Toward
the end of the weekend, the Gulf ridge will reassert its presence
in the Deep South and push toward Kentucky. This brings rising 5h
heights to the JKL CWA along with northwest mid level flow and
just some additional energy moving through before stronger ridging
tilts the mid level flow more northwesterly on Monday into
Tuesday. Confidence then lags starting the new work week on
account of another trough moving into the Upper Midwest with
larger model discrepancies. The limited model spread through the
weekend supported using the NBM as the starting point with minimal
adjustments needed through the period - mainly to include some
radiational cooling based terrain distinction in temperatures at
night Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Sensible weather features a damp and generally warm long term
portion of the forecast as plenty of moisture will be available
through the Ohio Valley. A large sfc low will gradually move
through the Upper Midwest into Friday with a slowing cold front
that lays out north of Kentucky Thursday night settling south
into Friday morning. A concern will be for more organized
convection that night and again on Friday night as the best upper
support pass by to the northwest with a mid level impulse or two
passing through the state on the southern periphery of the main
upper low. The potential for additional storm clusters will also
bring a non-zero threat for severe weather with damaging wind
gusts the primary concerns. This also kept the PoPs fairly high
through Saturday morning. Weak high pressure and some brief but
distinct drying does follow for late in the day and at night.
This will allow for more of a ridge to valley temperature split
that night. However, another storm cluster along that still nearby
stalled boundary could result in additional storm chances but
with low confidence on timing and placement for Sunday afternoon.
Another lull in the activity should commence that night into
Monday morning, but again shower and storm chances tick up for the
afternoon and carry into Tuesday. Given the continuing uncertainty
with this mesoscale demented pattern have maintained a chance for
showers and/or storms each afternoon through the weekend and the
start of the new work week. Likewise, temperatures will have a
larger potential spread from the latter part of the weekend
through Tuesday with the drier scenario favoring warmer
conditions.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding terrain distinction to the temperatures for Saturday night.
As for PoPs - did not deviate from the NBM solution given the
fairly similar model clusters and net results for this part of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with
temporary restrictions possible to MVFR and lower with any
showers and thunderstorms, as well as with any overnight/morning
fog. PROB30 groups were added and/or expanded upon based on latest
forecast models, with the primary thunderstorm threat this
evening into the early overnight. Fog can be expected overnight at
terminals which see sufficient clearing after any
showers/thunderstorms, and will be possible even with just
sufficient partial clearing and no showers/storms. Future TAF
packages will be able to better hone in on precipitation timing
and any deterministic fog forecasts for specific terminals.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 14, 2:42 PM EDT---------------
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