MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:51 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...925
FXUS64 KMOB 132351
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
VFR conditions through the period. Winds primarily light and variable
tonight, then southeast to southerly around 5 to 10 knots during the
day on Friday. DS/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Upper ridging continues to build into the forecast area through
Friday. Likewise, the heat will continue to increase into Friday
with temperatures warming amply into the upper 90's to near 100 in
spots. Heat index values should remain in the 100 to 105 range,
however a couple spots nearer the coast could get near 107 Friday
afternoon. Overnight lows cool into the upper 60's inland and
lower to middle 70's nearer the coast. Overall weather conditions
should remain calm through Friday, with only an isolated storm or
two possible east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon. Dry weather
will prevail for the day Friday in all locations. A low risk of
rip currents continues into Friday. MM/25
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
It's going to be a hot weekend as upper high pressure over the
southern/central Great Plains shifts eastward over our region and
a large surface high pressure area across eastern North America
shifts eastward with a ridge setting up along the eastern Seaboard
to the Gulf of Mexico. It will be especially hot on Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s with some locations potentially
reaching the century mark. These temps are about 5 to 10 degrees
and above normal, and when combined with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60 to lower 70s, the highest heat index values should range
from 100-105 degrees. Dry conditions are expected Saturday most
areas, with only a few afternoon showers and storms possible over
a small portion of the western Florida Panhandle and south central
Alabama. A Low risk of rip currents is expected through the
remainder of the week.
An inverted upper trough sets up over the western Gulf early next
week with a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation across the
southwest Gulf of Mexico. Tropical depression formation is
possible during the early to middle part of next week while it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Upper disturbances
moving over our region should bring an increase in cloud coverage
and rain chances on Sunday, with isolated mainly afternoon showers
and storms northern zones with scattered coverage closer to the
coast. High temperatures Sunday will be slightly cooler in the low
to middle 90s, but when combined with surface dewpoints in the
lower to middle 70s, the highest heat index values should again
range from 100-105 degrees.
With the influence of the inverted upper trough over the western
Gulf, the center of the upper high pressure area over our region
is deflected northeastward away from the forecast area and a
surface ridge oriented mainly over the southeastern states
promotes a moist southeasterly flow over the forecast area. In
general, increasing amounts of deep layer moisture gradually work
into the forecast area through Tuesday. Maintained the higher
rain chances (30-60%) for Monday, with the best chances occurring
along a developing sea breeze. Tuesday through Thursday we are
primarily expecting a return to isolated afternoon showers and
storms northern zones with scattered coverage closer to the coast.
A Moderate risk of rip currents returns early next week. /22
MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and
a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday
and strengthens on Sunday as low pressure develops in the
southwestern Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head
into early next week. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 96 74 97 75 93 75 89 / 0 10 0 10 10 40 30 60
Pensacola 75 95 77 95 78 92 77 89 / 0 10 0 10 10 40 30 60
Destin 77 93 79 93 80 91 78 90 / 10 10 0 20 10 40 30 50
Evergreen 71 98 71 98 72 96 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 0 30 20 50
Waynesboro 68 97 70 99 73 97 72 90 / 0 0 0 10 0 20 10 50
Camden 69 97 71 98 73 98 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 0 20 10 40
Crestview 71 99 71 99 72 95 72 94 / 0 10 0 20 0 40 20 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 6:51 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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