CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 7:32 PM EDT015
FXUS61 KCLE 122332
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
Issued by National Weather Service Buffalo NY
732 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge exits slowly eastward from northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania through this Wednesday. Elsewhere, a
weakening low drifts north-northeastward from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley through early Tuesday
afternoon. Later Tuesday through Wednesday, this low will become
absorbed by a trough axis in vicinity of the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge at the surface and aloft lingers near the northern Great
Lakes and New England through daybreak Wednesday as our CWA
remains along the southern flank of the ridge. Elsewhere, a
nearly vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft drifts
NNE'ward from the Lower MS Valley to the Lower OH Valley through
midday Tuesday. Thereafter, the surface low should be absorbed
by a surface trough in vicinity of the OH Valley as the low
aloft wobbles ENE'ward toward the Mid OH Valley through daybreak
Wednesday. Given the aforementioned weather pattern evolution
at the surface and aloft, low-level warm/moist air advection
from the southern Gulf Stream will continue to impact northern
OH and NW PA. The WAA regime will contribute to above-average
lows mainly in the upper 50's to lower 60's around daybreak
Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The combination of low-level
WAA and peeks of sunshine should allow highs to reach mainly
the upper 60's to upper 70's Tuesday afternoon.
Low-level moist isentropic ascent aloft, associated with the
low pressure system's warm conveyor belt, is expected to release
elevated, primarily weak instability and trigger isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this evening
through daybreak Wednesday. Low-level convergence associated
with the low's cyclonic circulation and resulting moist ascent
amidst weak to perhaps moderate diurnal destabilization of the
boundary layer may contribute to isolated shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon through early evening across roughly
the southwestern-third of our CWA and should contribute to
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development late
Tuesday morning through early evening. Periods of heavy rainfall
are expected since the low-level return flow of warm/moist air
from the southern Gulf Stream will allow PWAT values to rise to
unusually-large magnitudes in our CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low over the Ohio Valley will open and lift through
the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. On Wednesday we
will still be under the influence of a moist southerly flow with PW
values near 90% on Wednesday afternoon. Instability of 500-1000 J/kg
are expected to develop with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms forecast to develop again during the afternoon. Flow
will be generally light with storm motion of 10-15 mph and some
training will be possible. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s for
another day. Lows on Wednesday night will be mild near 60 degrees.
As the upper level trough departs to the east on Thursday, shortwave
ridging will build overhead. Chances of precipitation will tend to
exit to the east on Thursday morning with just a lingering isolated
shower possible during the afternoon. Southerly return flow
kicks in on Thursday with temperatures warming to near 80
degrees as a warm front extending from low pressure over the
Upper Midwest lifts across the area. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will return Thursday night from west to east ahead
of the associated cold front wrapping in from the west.
Moderate instability looks to advect into the region by Thursday
evening and will need to monitor for some thunderstorms to be
strong or possibly severe as they approach the I- 75 corridor
Thursday evening and progress east into the overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precipitation associated with the above mentioned cold front will
depart to the east on Friday, leaving a mid-level dry-slot overhead
for much of the day. Most of Friday will be dry with just an
isolated shower during the afternoon. Another piece of the cold
front comes through on Friday night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible again on Saturday with the upper trough
crossing the Great Lakes Region. The impact on temperatures will be
minimal with highs still near to above normal behind the front on
Saturday. Sunday looks to be the dry day of the week as high
pressure builds in behind the front. We will have to watch the
progress of energy rounding the ridge for chances of
precipitation early next week. For now confidence was not high
enough and will continue with a dry forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A band of showers is moving south to north through the region
this evening which will aid in lowering the ceilings over the
first few hours of the forecast. A fairly quick transition to
MVFR and then IFR ceilings should be expected through the
duration of the TAF. A break in the showers likely for the
western terminals through morning. Further east, the frequency
of the showers is expected to be higher through later tonight
into early Tuesday. Leaving thunder out of the forecast for now.
Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible Tuesday afternoon through this Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds are expected to continue through Tuesday on Lake Erie
as weak low pressure moves north into the Ohio Valley. Winds may
vary from northeasterly to southeasterly at times but will tend to
be 15 knots or less with generally good marine condition. This
trough will lift north across Lake Erie on Wednesday with winds
becoming south to southeasterly. Another stronger low pressure
system will track through the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night
through Friday night, lifting a warm front north across Lake
Erie followed by a series of cold fronts Friday night through
Saturday night. Southwest winds will increase to at least 10-20
knots but could potentially be higher.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...26
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 12, 7:32 PM EDT---------------
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