PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 11:55 AM CDT709
FXUS63 KPAH 111655
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances of showers and some thunderstorms will increase from
south to north this afternoon through tonight.
- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected
late tonight through Monday.
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will redevelop mainly in
the heat of the day Tuesday.
- Unsettled weather returns Thursday afternoon through Saturday,
accompanied by above normal temperatures, with the warmest and
more humid conditions on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
A low pressure system moving north from the central Gulf Coast
today will spread isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms into much of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri
this afternoon. Coverage will increase and spread north across
our entire area tonight, with chances by Monday afternoon at
80-100%. Monday convection will be primarily diurnally driven,
so loss of heating will result in Monday evening chances
dropping to 20-30%, then late Monday night will be mostly dry.
Chances will quickly increase in the heat of the day Tuesday,
with the highest chances (60-80%)/greatest coverage east of the
Mississippi River as the low pressure system moves from the PAH
forecast area eastward. Tuesday night will be dry, then a stray
shower or storm is possible in southwest Indiana during the day
Wednesday.
Our region will be in between systems Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, a warm front will lift
north through the region ahead of a cold front approaching from
the west. The latest model blend only produces 20-30% chances
mainly east of the Mississippi River Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night. Friday afternoon through Saturday, with the
approach and passage of the cold front, the model blend shows
scattered showers and storms. Models differ on timing of the
cold front and how much convection will develop overall
Thursday through Saturday, so a lot of fine tuning of the
forecast will continue for late week into next weekend. Timing
will also affect any potential for strong to severe storms.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm Thursday and Friday due
to increasing southerly winds south of the warm front. Dew
points will climb into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
Thursday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly
90 degrees, resulting in heat indices in the lower 90s.
Temperatures and dew points will both be a few degrees lower for
Friday, then Saturday highs will be in the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025
Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as the next disturbance
approaches, with MVFR cigs becoming probable overnight into the
early morning hours on Monday. Intermittent IFR cigs will also
be possible towards daybreak, especially at KCGI/KPAH.
Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin to
spread across the region tonight. Thunderstorm coverage
increases after sunrise on Monday with more instability. Brief
MVFR vsby reductions will be possible at times. Winds tonight
will be light out of the east below 5 kts before increasing to
7-9 kts Monday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 11:55 AM CDT---------------
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