IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 6:47 PM EDT616
FXUS63 KIND 092247
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
647 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Briefly cooler today, then warmer temperatures this weekend into
next week
- Mainly isolated/scattered showers/t-storms Monday-Wednesday
- Expect warmer than normal conditions w/ moderate humidity late
next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over MI, WI and IA. This was providing cool, northeasterly
surface flow to Central Indiana. Aloft, strong ridging was found
stretching from NB/SD to the Western Great Lakes to northwestern
Quebec. This was resulting in dry, northerly flow aloft along with
lee side subsidence across IL/Indiana/OH. GOES16 shows clear skies
across Indiana. Dew points were in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
A dry cool front was found stretching across MN and SD, and some
clouds could be seen on GOES16 with this feature. Another area of
high pressure was found in the wake of that system over Saskatchewan.
Tonight and Saturday -
Mostly Clear and dry weather is expected tonight and Saturday with
seasonable temperatures. Models suggest the strong ridging aloft
will quickly drift east through the region tonight along with the
the departing high pressure system. Models show dry forecast
soundings tonight as the high departs. Thus continued mostly clear
skies will be expected with light winds. Given our low dew points,
lows in the lower to middle 40s will be expected.
On Saturday, the dry cold front is shown to quickly push across
Indiana, allowing the secondary area of high pressure to arrive
across our region. Models suggest the front/cusp area becomes even
less organized overnight as it approaches and passes on Saturday.
Again, time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column as
upper ridging re-establishes itself over the northern plains. This
results in more lee side subsidence over the western Great Lakes
spilling toward Indiana on NW flow. Thus a sunny Saturday will be
expected. Slightly warmer 850mb temps are expected on Saturday. This
will result slightly warmer high temperatures. Highs in the middle
70s will be expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
High pressure will settle over the region setting the stage for a
spectacular weekend. After a chilly start on Saturday...temperatures
will rise through Sunday as surface flow generally swings around
to W/SW. Deep subsidence over the Ohio Valley supports mostly
clear skies with the possibility of a subtle increase in clouds
Saturday night and Sunday morning as a weak boundary washes out
over the forecast area. Highs in the mid and upper 70s are
expected both Saturday and Sunday with the potential for some
locations to be near 80 Sunday afternoon.
Monday through Thursday
The aforementioned upper low which will lift north and into the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday and Wednesday...lingering across the region before
shifting to the northeast. The presence of the feature will generate
enough forcing aloft to interact with a moist and unstable airmass
to produce scattered convection focused especially during peak
heating in the afternoon and early evening. A lack of appreciable
shear will support pulse intensity and slow moving showers and
storms. The coolest day will likely be Tuesday in the mid 70s with
the greatest cloud and convective coverage expected. Both Monday and
Wednesday will see highs into the lower 80s with lows rising into
the 60s by midweek.
The signal for warmer than normal temperatures will continue for
late next week into next weekend with a potentially more active
convective regime developing as well. With the passage of a warm
front Thursday...highs could rise into the mid to possibly upper 80s
for late next week bringing a distinctly summer feel to central
Indiana for the first time this year.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
Strong high pressure will be in control across the region throughout
the period. This will lead to clear or mostly clear skies, light and
occasionally variable winds, and unrestricted visibility.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 6:47 PM EDT---------------
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