ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 2:37 PM EDT531
FXUS61 KILN 091837
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
237 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the weekend. This
will lead to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms will return as we head into the work week
as an upper level low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will settle in across our area overnight with
the ridge axis overhead by daybreak. This will lead to clear skies
and good radiational cooling overnight. As a result, have undercut
temperature guidance by several degrees and expect lows to drop into
the 35 to 40 degree range across much of the area. Some patchy frost
will be possible, especially across eastern portions of our area,
where we will go with a frost advisory for later tonight into early
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will drop down across the lower Great Lakes through
the day on Saturday but wash out as it moves into northern Ohio.
High pressure will then begin to reestablish itself across our area
heading into Saturday night. With limited moisture, expect mostly
sunny/mostly clear skies to prevail Saturday into Saturday night.
Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Saturday in the low
to possibly mid 70s and lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper level ridge oriented nw-se from MN to the Carolina's
coast will build between the departing low and a stationary cutoff
low over LA. This ridge will promote a dry and slightly warming
airmass in the Ohio Valley through Monday. Then, the upper ridge
will break down ahead of the low in LA drifting ne and become an
open wave at the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers by Tuesday
afternoon. A chance of rain enters Monday night as the upper low and
lower flow bring in moisture from the south/southeast. This is
offset by the e/se flow and its typical drying nature over the CWA.
Rain chances increase, particularly along/s of OH River on Tuesday
as a decent axis of upper level s/w energy tracks north.
The broad upper low reaches sw CWA overnight Tuesday. By daybreak
Wed, the low will be over/east of the CWA and bring a brief lull in
shower activity overnight that will ramp up on Wed afternoon given
daytime insolation. Precip through this time looks to be composed of
weak convective elements that strengthen in the late day. Better
instability comes in two periods - Tues afternoon in the south and
Wed afternoon in nern CWA. Thunder is maximized in the late
day/early evening with a significant reduction of deeper convection
overnight and early in the day.
Ridging builds in from the west for a dry Thurs and quickly passes
east overnight. S/w energy on the back side and a cold frontal
passage on Friday will bring thunderstorms to the CWA.
Temperatures will be mild and slightly above seasonal norms. Highs
in the mid-upper 70s through Tue, near 80 Wed, and mid 80s Thu and
Fri. Lows upper 50s Sun night, near 60 Mon/Tue, mid 60s Wed and Fri
with upper 60s peaking Thurs in a mild warm sector.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place across the region tonight into
Saturday. This will lead to dry conditions and VFR conditions through
the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Monday afternoon into
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ045-046-055-
056-064-065-073-074-082.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 9, 2:37 PM EDT---------------
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