MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 5:34 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...296
FXUS64 KMOB 101034
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
534 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Now Through Sunday Night...
Surface low pressure has developed over the northern Gulf this
morning and is expected to slowly lift northward over the course
of the day. Widespread rainfall continues across much of the area,
with a band of strong thunderstorms located along the Baldwin
County coast, south of I-10. This band will push to the east
throughout the morning bringing with it heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and the potential for one or two brief tornadoes. Hi- res
guidance shows that this band should exit our local CWA by around
noontime. Additional storms should develop during the afternoon
thanks to diurnal heating. Drier air aloft appears to wrap around
the periphery of the upper-level low to our west which will help
to steepen lapse rates to around 6.5-7.0 C/km. Deep layer shear of
around 30 knots will also be in place, which could lead to some
loose storm organization. Gusty winds and small hail will be the
primary threats with these storms. If we are able to recover after
these morning storms, then one or two 'mini spinnys' cannot be
ruled out for areas east of I-65. Coverage should decrease by the
evening hours. The surface low appears to occlude and move off to
the west a bit late tonight and into Sunday. However, with the
close proximity of this low, as well as a diffluent southerly flow
pattern aloft, scattered to numerous showers and storms will once
again develop starting late Sunday morning and will continue
through the evening. Deep layer shear appears to strengthen to
around 40-45 knots as a shortwave wraps around the base of the
upper low. Isolated severe storms, capable of producing large hail
and gusty to damaging winds will once again be the primary
threats, although with a LLJ developing over the Florida
Panhandle, cannot rule out a tornado over our easternmost
counties. Heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm that
develops over the weekend. Given the saturated soils from
previous rainfall, a few isolated instances of flash flooding may
be possible, especially over urban/low-lying areas. A High Risk of
Rip Currents will be in place through the weekend. /96
Monday Through Friday...
An upper low will be located over the lower Mississippi River valley
Monday morning then gradually evolves into an open trof over the
eastern states on Tuesday. An associated occluded surface low
meanwhile weakens and moves off to near North Carolina, with a
surface ridge building across the central Gulf in the process. Have
continued with mostly likely pops for Monday as this system
traverses the region, then for Tuesday have gone with slight chance
to chance pops for much of the area. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with the upper level low on Monday and mid level dry air
results in wet bulb zero values near 10 kft, which is favorable for
hail development. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a
marginal risk of severe storms for Monday for the entire area and
will continue to monitor. The upper trof moves off into the western
Atlantic by Thursday with an upper ridge meanwhile building into the
forecast region. With the exit of the upper trof, am anticipating
dry conditions for Wednesday which continues through Friday, along
with a warming trend. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, then by Friday highs will be in the lower 90s for much of
the area with some inland locations nearing 95. Lows Monday night
range from the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast,
then trend by Thursday night to range from the upper 60s inland to
the lower 70s closer to the coast. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Scattered to numerous showers with a few possible embedded storms
affect the area overnight then coverage diminishes on Saturday
into Saturday evening. IFR/MVFR conditions become predominant
overnight, then improve to MVFR/VFR on Saturday. East to northeast
winds 5-10 knots are expected tonight. For Saturday, a northerly
to easterly flow near 10 knots is anticipated over southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama, while further to the east a
southeasterly to southerly flow develops. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025
A low pressure system has developed over our Gulf waters and is
expected to push onshore this morning. This low will allow for
winds and seas to quickly increase, and a Small Craft Advisory is
in place through this afternoon. Winds will subside by Saturday
night and into Sunday. A light to moderate southwesterly flow
follows for early next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 79 61 79 62 78 61 83 67 / 40 10 50 40 50 10 10 0
Pensacola 79 67 79 67 78 67 81 71 / 60 30 60 60 50 20 20 0
Destin 78 70 78 69 80 69 81 72 / 80 50 60 60 50 30 20 10
Evergreen 80 63 80 62 81 58 84 62 / 80 30 70 60 70 20 30 0
Waynesboro 76 57 79 59 77 58 82 62 / 80 20 70 40 70 10 20 0
Camden 77 62 79 62 79 59 81 62 / 90 40 80 70 80 20 30 0
Crestview 79 64 79 62 82 61 84 63 / 80 50 70 60 60 20 30 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 10, 5:34 AM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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