PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 3:53 AM EDT660
FXUS61 KPBZ 080753
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
353 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front today will return showers and isolated
storms south of Pittsburgh today. A dry weather pattern with
warming temperature is likely this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- River valley fog expected this morning
- Passing cold front returns rain and isolated storm chances
this afternoon/evening
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows
clearing cirrus clouds for portions of the region and the
formation of patchy fog in the river valleys, as temperatures
drop from radiational cooling. However, since the likelihood of
sustained visibility reductions between a half to a quarter of
mile remains low, a Fog Advisory will not be issued. Fog will
likely dissipate within an hour after sunrise.
With the passage of a cold front this afternoon/evening, the
probability of rain showers and isolated storms increases
between 12pm to 2pm with maximum surface heating. Areas south
of Pittsburgh, where the probability of instability ranges from
400J/kg to 900J/kg, could potentially see an isolated
thunderstorm develop. With weak effective shear across the
region, expect the only hazard to be lightning. Probability of
thunderstorms decreases after 8pm with the loss of surface
heating.
Afternoon high temperatures will trend near to slightly above
average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and below average temperatures expected Friday/Friday
night
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Increasing mid- and upper-level subsidence is expected to keep
most of the region dry on Friday. Some lingering early morning
showers may persist east of Pittsburgh, but measurable
precipitation will primarily be confided to central Pennsylvania
and the East Coast, associated with an inverted trough.
With cold air advection aloft and northerly to northeast flow,
afternoon high temperature on Friday are projected to run 5 to
10 degrees below normal.
Skies are likely to clear Friday night, allowing temperatures to
fall into the mid to upper-30s due to radiational cooling.
Patchy frost is possible, particularly across the ridges and
areas north of I-80. However, the probability of temperatures
dropping below 35 degrees is relatively low - generally between
10% to 20% - so the need for frost headlines remains minimal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warmer for the weekend into early next week
- Rain chances return by mid-week
- Potential for strong to severe storms late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high that quiet and warm conditions will
prevail over the weekend, as a ridge of high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes while a departing trough moves into the New
England region. By Sunday, temperatures are forecast to run
about 10 degrees above normal.
Rain chances are expected to increase late Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cut-off low over the Mississippi River Valley
lifts northward, coinciding with the approach of a deep trough
along the West Coast.
Looking ahead to late week, there is an emerging signal for the
potential of severe thunderstorms as a low-pressure system
tracks into the Great Lakes, interacting with a warm and moist
airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance suggests a lower threat for fog than previously
forecast given widespread cirrus shield. Have backed off
restrictions at most sites, save for LBE/MGW where probabilities
remain highest. Otherwise, generally VFR should continue through
much of the day.
Restriction potential increases this afternoon/evening for
locations south and east of PIT (i.e. MGW/LBE) as showers and a
few thunderstorms fire along a cold front. Given the location
of this boundary south and east of PIT by convective initiation,
have removed mention from other sites. Cigs are expected to
lower into MVFR/IFR range Thursday night, generally southeast
of a line from ZZV to PIT to DUJ.
Outlook...
Ceilings should improve Friday morning with VFR expected
areawide by the afternoon. General VFR will then prevail through
the weekend with high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 3:53 AM EDT---------------
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