LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 7:50 PM EDT150
FXUS63 KLMK 082350
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
750 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Some storms could be strong to severe with large hail and
damaging gusty winds. Slower moving storms may produce ponding of
water and localized flooding concerns.
* Pleasant and mostly dry for the end of the week into the weekend
with just a slight chance of showers/storms across south-central
KY.
* Rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for early
next week as another slow moving disturbance moves through the
area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
Convection continues to wane in intensity this evening, with the
exception of a severe storm quickly approaching Glasgow. Quarter-
size hail, gusty winds, and brief torrential rainfall are all
possible with this storm (in addition to frequent lightning).
MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg lingers across south-central KY, where low-
level lapse rates are still around 7 C/km. Effective bulk shear
remains marginal at around 30+ kts in south-central and southeastern
KY. Just enough vertical shear to support some mid-level rotation
and an enhanced hail threat, as we've already seen earlier in the
afternoon/evening. Have canceled the northern and far western of our
counties included in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238, and we'll be
able to drop the remaining counties by 9 PM EDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #238 is now in effect until 9 PM EDT/8 PM
CDT for the southern half of central KY. ML CAPE values are now
peaking in the 1000-1500 J/KG range, and this remains coincident
with roughly 25 knots of deep layer shear. Mid level lapse rates are
also fairly steep on the order of 7C, and this matches with forecast
soundings showing some better positive area in the hail growth zone.
As a result, we've already seen one storm in Ohio County produce
some quarter to golf ball size hail, and expect that a large hail,
and damaging wind threat will continue into the evening. Currently
convection is more isolated to widely scattered in nature, however
expect that coverage will congeal a bit more with outflow boundaries
bouncing off each other, and the main vort lobe moving closer to the
region. Speaking of the vort max, noticing upstream that storms are
starting to congeal into more of a linear cluster over southern IL
and the MO Bootheel. We could start to see a better cold pool
organizing with those features, and if so, this could bring a better
wind threat across the southern third of the CWA by early evening.
Something to watch upstream, in addition to the current
hail/isolated microburst threat.
Also will continue watching slower storm movement, especially across
the northern half of the CWA where deep layer shear is weaker and
there is some mid level deformation to the north of the upper low.
Some locally heavier rainfall totals can't be ruled out. For what
it is worth, HREF LPMM progs do show some isolated 2+" amounts,
which seems reasonable given the setup. We'll monitor for any need
for localized flood advisories or flash flood warnings.
Surface cool front pushes in from the north later tonight, while the
upper low pushes east of the area. This will result in a drying
trend into the overnight, with cooler/drier air filtering in from
the north. The end result will be a dry and pleasant Friday with
temps peaking in the upper 60s and low 70s after a chilly morning
start in the 40s across southern IN and low to mid 50s across KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
The Weekend...
Models have mostly come into better agreement for the weekend, and
the trend is for a dry/pleasant stretch of weather. The surface
front looks to be far enough south, and the meandering cutoff low
over the western Gulf Coast states won't yet be pushing enough
deeper moisture our way. As a result, look for dry conditions with
temps in the low to mid 70s on Saturday, and in the upper 70s to
around 80 by Sunday. Pretty strong diurnal ranges under this setup,
and it should be noted that Saturday morning will still be chilly in
the low and mid 40s for most.
Monday - Wednesday...
A more active period of showers and storms looks likely for the
early next week time frame as the cutoff/closed low over the western
Gulf Coast states finally ejects NE across the Ohio Valley region.
This slow moving, moisture laden feature will be the trigger for
showers and storm each day Monday/Tuesday as it slowly progresses
through. Will continue to message scattered to numerous coverage,
especially each afternoon and early evening. Temps should be
confined to the 70s, with most locations peaking in the mid to upper
70s range each day.
Wednesday should be less active as the center of the upper low
pushes off to the NE. That being said, will have to leave at least
some lingering isolated chances for a shower or storm. Overall, this
day should be drier than not with slightly warmer temps in the upper
70s to low 80s.
Wednesday Night - Thursday...
The upper ridge starts to build in toward the later part of the
week. This should trend the forecast drier as the upper low will be
well off to the NE by this time. Much warmer temps expected toward
late week with mid 80s. Full sun and we could be looking at upper
80s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025
Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will remain possible early in this
TAF period, especially in the first 3-4 hours of the period.
Overnight, a sfc cold front will push further south of the forecast
area as the upper level trough sinks over the region. A band of IFR
and low-end MVFR stratus is likely to develop over central KY after
03Z and persist through about 12Z Friday (a bit later at BWG).
Steady NE winds of 8-12 kts are likely through most of the period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 7:50 PM EDT---------------
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