ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 10:48 PM EDT461
FXUS61 KILN 080248
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1048 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will progress south through the Ohio Valley on Thursday
bringing cool and dry weather for Friday. Warmer conditions return
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A weak boundary remains in place across the region. Some sprinkles
or light shower activity is currently situated southwest of the
region and moving towards the forecast area. Added in a sprinkle
mention across western and southwestern portions of the region for
the overnight hours. In addition kept a slight chance showers in
late in the near term as well across far southwestern portions of the
region. Went close to the NBM for temperatures overnight with lows
in the upper 40s north to middle 50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface boundary will continue to work through the region on
Thursday. The area will have a disturbance working down from the
south and one moving north from the south that will create a focus
across the region for thunderstorm development near the Ohio River.
There are some indications that these storms will have the potential
for large hail. In addition, looking at moisture transport vectors
the storms will be slow moving and oriented at least for a time in an
east to west orientation. This causes at least some concern for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding issues as well. Added in large hail
and isolated flooding concerns into the HWO with a focus across the
regions mentions above. The systems will move south through the
night Thursday night ending precipitation chances and any severe
threat. There will be some breezy conditions Thursday evening. Cooler
air will work in Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to upper
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid Ohio Valley will remain in a mid level high pressure axis
through the weekend, in between an upper level trough over the
northeast coast and an upper level low over the lower Mississippi
Valley. As a result, expect mainly dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. High on Friday in the mid to upper 60s will trend
upwards to highs in the mid to upper 70s by Sunday.
The upper level low will lift slowly northeast across the Tennessee
Valley through mid next week. Initially this will lead to a chance
for showers and thunderstorms across mainly our southern areas on
Monday. More widespread, diurnally enhanced showers and
thunderstorms will then be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain warm with afternoon highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. A few sprinkles or
light showers cannot be ruled out overnight, however in general
expect dry conditions. There will be showers and thunderstorms that
develop during the day on Thursday. KILN will be on the edge of this
activity and limited thunderstorm mention to a PROB30. KCVG and KLUK
will have the potential for several hours of showers and
thunderstorms. This will only be a narrow corridor so slight
differences in location could have an impact on the amount of time
that KCVG and KLUK will be in the thunderstorm activity. Cannot rule
out some brief MVFR cigs with and just after the thunderstorm
activity across the region, however expect it to be brief. As the
system pushes south Thursday evening winds will pick up and have
some wind gusts in the TAFs.
OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 10:48 PM EDT---------------
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