PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 1:40 PM EDT922
FXUS61 KPBZ 061740
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
140 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today
under a slow moving area of low pressure. Mainly dry weather
returns under high pressure for Wednesday, before a cold front
returns showers to the region on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers increase in coverage today
- Isolated storms possible
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Low pressure is progged to become vertically stacked as it moves
across the Upper Ohio Valley region today. Showers are expected
to increase in coverage, especially this afternoon, as a band of
moisture rotates around the low. Low convective temperatures
should also enhance lift to produce the showers this afternoon.
Instability is expected to be minimal, with MU CAPE progged at
around 250 j/kg. This could be enough to generate a couple of
isolated thunderstorms, with some small hail possible with a low
freezing level (7-8kft) in place.
Cooler temperatures are expected today under the low, with highs
ranging from 5 to 10 degrees below average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers taper off tonight
- Dry for most of the area on Wednesday
- Cold front returns showers for Thursday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The low is expected to move across PA this evening, reaching
eastern NY by Wednesday morning. Showers will continue into the
evening before tapering off from W-E later in the evening and
overnight as the low moves east. A few showers are possible in
the ridges Wednesday morning just behind the low, with some weak
upslope flow. Otherwise, dry weather is expected as the low
continues eastward, and weak surface high pressure briefly
builds in.
A digging trough is expected to drop southeast from the Upper
Midwest Wednesday night, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley
region Thursday morning. Scattered showers are expected to
develop as the deepening trough approaches, and moisture
increases in SW flow ahead of it. Ensemble model consensus
indicates the trough will deepen into a closed low Thursday
night, as it reaches western PA and southern NY. Most of the
shower activity is expected to be on the eastern side of the
low, with POPs decreasing Thursday night across our area.
Temperatures are expected to be near seasonably warm levels on
Wednesday, with readings cooling on Thursday with the
approaching trough and showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry for most areas Friday
- Dry and warmer for the weekend into early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
There is some uncertainty in the location of the closed upper
low on Friday, though ensembles indicate it to be centered
across south central New York Friday morning. As mentioned
above, most of the precip is expected to be on the eastern side
of the low, with mainly dry weather expected for most areas.
The low is progged to be absorbed in the northern stream flow on
Saturday as it continues it's east/northeastward movement.
Rising 500 mb heights and surface high pressure moving across
the Upper Ohio Valley region should result in dry and warmer
weather through the weekend.
Surface ridging should maintain the dry and warm weather Monday,
though an upper low is expected to track slowly northward from
the Mississippi Valley region. This low could impact our weather
after the end of the extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers are moving through the area early this
afternoon as a low pressure system skirts the area to the north.
Outside of convection, VFR conditions prevail, while brief
reductions to MVFR are occurring in the heavier instances of
rain. Wouldn't be too surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or
see some very small hail or graupel in the heavier cells as
well, though these instances would be far too isolated in
nature to warrant inclusion in TAFs.
Expect a greater coverage of rain and more persistent
restrictions to develop later this afternoon and evening,
first across extreme southwest PA and northern WV (ZZV to HLG to
MGW) and then spreading northward. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings
are expected overnight as rain ends from west to east in the
wake of the low pressure system. Lingering low-level moisture
from the day's rain potentially aids in patchy fog development
even after rain departs, though confidence in this remains low
as clouds and light winds could prevent us from cooling to
saturation. Widespread improvement in ceilings and visibilities
is expected Wednesday morning as a brief period of drier weather
settles in following the departure of the low.
Outlook...
VFR largely returns by Wednesday afternoon. Restriction
potential increases again on Thursday as an upper trough
approaches the region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM/Frazier
NEAR TERM...WM/Frazier
SHORT TERM...WM/Frazier
LONG TERM...WM/Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 1:40 PM EDT---------------
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