ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 8:55 AM EDT887
FXUS61 KILN 061255
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
855 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cut off low will slowly move east today, exiting the middle Ohio
Valley late. High pressure will provide a dry mid-week before a cold
front brings a chance of showers on Thursday. Warm and dry weather
is on tap for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Closed mid-level low along with a surface low pressure to our north will
bring one more day of rain today. The main focus area will be in a
region of low-level convergence moving from the Great Miami River
valley this morning to central Ohio by afternoon. Thunder chances
remain low this afternoon with only 100-200J/kg developing later
as the precipitation is beginning to exit central Ohio. Winds will
become westerly this afternoon and may gust to 15-20 mph at times.
Highs today will range from the lower 60s in the north to near 70 in
the Tri-State where we are likely to see some sun late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds will decrease from southwest to northeast tonight as the upper
low finally exits our region. Lows will drop to around 50 degrees
area-wide.
Height rises and a bit of sunshine will offer warmer temperatures on
Wednesday. Should see a shallow cumulus field with decent coverage
during the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Wednesday night into Thursday, a digging S/W into the Great Lakes
on the heels of the departing closed low will move to the SW, with a
recent trend toward a more amplified/digging solution with this
feature. This, combined with the arrival of a weakening mid/upper
level system from the Mid MS Rvr Vly will lead to a narrow axis of
better lift/forcing into the ILN FA Wednesday night into Thursday
afternoon. This should keep ISO SHRA activity going through the
night before expansion of coverage occurs by late morning/AFTERNOON
Thursday with diurnal destabilization across the S.
A very weakly-convergent frontal boundary will progress from N to
the S through the local area Thursday morning into the afternoon,
supporting a chance for more SHRA/TSRA along the instby gradient,
mainly near/S of I-70 where better daytime heating will allow for
more robust instby, with the best instby favored near/S of the OH
Rvr. The coverage of pcpn will likely end up being higher near/S of
the OH Rvr during the daytime Thursday, particularly late morning
through mid afternoon, than current blended guidance would suggest,
so PoPs were manually adjusted upwards near/S of the OH Rvr to
account for latest trends. Amidst a narrow corridor of 500-1000J/kg
of SBCAPE within the srn third of the ILN FA through the first half
of the daytime , widespread SHRA/TSRA is expected across far SE IN,
far S/S-central OH, into N/NE KY. Deep-layer shear is meager and LL
shear is exceptionally low, meaning the overall severe threat should
be minimal, despite fairly high coverage of SHRA/TSRA during this
time.
Conditions should trend drier area-wide from N to S by Thursday
evening/night. Skies should trend clear and with very dry air
settling into the region, temps will get fairly chilly by seasonal
standards, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The good news is
that the sfc wind should stay up (out of the NNE) at around 5-10kts
through the night, so frost is not a big concern at this time.
Ensemble guidance seems to be in fairly good agreement showing a
continued influx of very dry air from the N into the daytime Friday
on the backside of the deepening system to the E. By Friday into
Saturday, the digging S/W should evolve into a closed low to the E
of the OH Vly, but still close enough to support below normal temps
(with highs in the mid to upper 60s) during the daytime Friday,
despite sunny skies.
A slow warming trend should evolve this weekend as a narrow axis of
better moisture briefly tries to move into the ILN FA early Saturday
before another brief reinforcing shot of dry air arrives Saturday
night into Sunday. Temps will trend above normal by Sunday through
next week.
While the exact evolution of the pattern into early next week still
has some uncertainties at these time ranges given the weak flow
entrenched across the ern CONUS, the latest ensemble guidance
suggests that a separate cutoff low initially across the SE CONUS
this weekend is going to meander N into the TN/OH Vlys by Monday
into Tuesday. This will likely occur amidst a seasonably warm (and
moist) airmass, which would bring increased pcpn chances back into
the area much quicker than originally expected. These SHRA/TSRA
chances will likely be maximized during the daytime, but it seems
increasingly probable that another slow/lumbering cutoff low will
bring several days of SHRA/TSRA to the local area through the first
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will continue to slowly translate across our northern TAF
sites through the morning hours on the back side of weak low
pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Low clouds have been rather
patchy in this morning's observations, so have trended a bit more
optimistic in the 12Z TAF update.
As the low pressure shifts through central Ohio into eastern Ohio
this afternoon, we should see showers end from southwest to
northeast. Westerly flow and dry conditions will occur tonight.
For the extended part of the CVG TAF, a cumulus field will likely
develop on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 6, 8:55 AM EDT---------------
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