MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 1:49 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...347
FXUS64 KMOB 041849
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
149 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025
High pressure will settle into the region today, as a closed low
remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a trough
digging along the West Coast will continue to amplify, eventually
becoming a closed low over the Four Corners Region. The low to the
west will move slowly eastward during the first part of the work
week, with a ridge building over the region. This will keep dry and
seasonal conditions across the local area through Tuesday.
Attention then turns to the potential impacts the low to our west
will bring as we head into the second half of the work week. The
axis of the ridge will shift east of the area, with flow aloft
increasing and becoming southwesterly. Meanwhile, surface
cyclogenesis will occur over southern Texas by Tuesday night. As the
low lifts to the north-northeast, a warm front will lift northward
into the northern Gulf. This will begin to set the stage for a
potential long duration heavy rain event across the region.
Guidance has been fairly consistent on the overall synoptic pattern,
though there remain discrepancies in what the eventual evolution and
actual impacts may be. The southerly flow through the vertical
column will lead to an increase in moisture return by Tuesday, with
PW values climbing to near 1. 75 inches (exceeding the 90th
percentile for early May). That, combined with increased forcing as
the warm front lifts north, will provide an initial wave of showers
across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This first wave will be
relatively light, with rainfall totals through late Tuesday night
remaining less than an inch. The closed upper low to our west will
have made very little progression eastward by Wednesday and is
likely to remain stalled through Thursday. Weak shortwaves will
round the base of the trough and lift northeastward through the
region providing enough forcing for showers/storms to continue
through much of Wednesday and Thursday. We could see periods of
heavy rainfall in this timeframe as the LLJ strengthens and provide
additional forcing. As we head into Friday and the upcoming weekend,
the low will begin to make its eastward progression, moving into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The surface low will skirt along the Gulf
coast, as the upper low stalls. This will keep enough forcing to
combine with the elevated moisture for widespread showers to
continue into the weekend.
Although there is a relatively high confidence for heavy rain to
develop over portions of the region, where the heaviest rain occurs
remains very uncertain. A reasonable worst case scenario would bring
upwards of 6 inches across the area from early Wednesday morning
through Sunday. This won't come all at once, but rather as
individual rounds with breaks in the rain. Our antecedent conditions
are wet, with 7 day percent of normal nearing 400-600% along and
south of the I-10 corridor and 200-300% along our north-northeastern
counties. These areas would have the highest chance for flash
flooding, though repeated instances of heavy rain and/or high
rainfall rates would bring the flash flood threat areawide. Due to
the uncertainty of when/where the heavier rain develops, it's
prudent to remain aware of the forecast and check back for updates.
/73
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the next 24
hours. Winds will become calm after sunset and skies will remain
mostly clear. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025
A light offshore flow behind a passing cold front lasts into the
coming week before onshore flow returns Tuesday. A light to at times
moderate onshore flow is expected the rest of the week into the
weekend.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 53 81 59 82 66 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 30 50 80 70 90
Pensacola 60 79 64 80 70 80 71 80 / 0 0 0 20 30 60 70 90
Destin 62 80 65 82 70 82 72 81 / 0 0 0 10 20 50 50 80
Evergreen 49 80 53 84 61 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 20 50 80 70 90
Waynesboro 48 79 54 80 61 78 62 80 / 0 0 0 30 80 90 70 80
Camden 48 76 53 80 61 78 63 79 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 70 80
Crestview 50 82 54 86 61 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 20 20 60 50 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 1:49 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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