IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 2:32 PM EDT209
FXUS63 KIWX 021832
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
232 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing chance for showers tonight.
- Episodic showers through at least Tuesday.
-Cool this weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
An area of showers and thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi
Valley will track northeast along a frontal boundary tonight, guided
by southwesterly 500-mb flow. The HREF mean suggests rain stays
primarily east of Fort Wayne, impacting an area from Marion, IN to
Napoleon, OH. I've adjusted POPs eastward to account for this. Near
or after daybreak Saturday, an upper-level low seen digging into
Missouri River valley as of this writing arrives on our door step
with enough poleward moisture transport to spark showers across
northwest Indiana. This is followed by a plausible diurnal uptick in
showers in both the vicinity of this low and the aformentioned
frontal boundary later in the day.
Next week features numerous chances for showers as a low gets cut
off from a mid-latitude jet displaced across Canada. This low swirls
over the Midwest tonight through at least Tuesday. Showers appear to
be most widespread Sunday afternoon as a deformation zone moves
overhead with excellent moisture transport from the Atlantic. This
low gradually moves east by midweek as a Canadian trough attempts to
dig in over the Great Lakes. Another low by late-week moves across
the southern Mississippi Valley and could offer additional chances
for showers over southern areas, though rising heights aloft will
allow for a warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025
KFWA mixing out to VFR while KSBN still struggling with low MVFR
cigs as of 16z with marine layer locked in north of a stalled
boundary. Still think this low cloud deck will mix out by or
shortly after issuance with VFR conditions at each terminal
through much of tonight. An upstream shortwave will cutoff into
the OH Valley tomorrow with rain and lower cigs eventually
developing from central IN into western OH, possibly clipping
KFWA with times of light rain and MVFR restrictions.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 2:32 PM EDT---------------
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