IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 3:24 AM EDT860
FXUS63 KIWX 020724
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
324 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers through the weekend.
- Turning cooler Saturday and Sunday. Highs only in the 50s Sunday.
- Rainfall amounts of 4 tenths near and north of the Michigan line
to 8 tenths from White county near Monticello to Portland and Lima.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025
A highly blocked pattern will persist through the entire forecast
period including Friday of this upcoming week. The initial upper low
that develops over the Great Lakes region with keep scattered to
numerous showers and chilly air over the forecast area through
Sunday as highly amplified omega blocks stall east movement. Given
the proximity of the upper low and the duration this system is
over the Midwest and Ohio Valley region, rainfall amounts through
Sunday should range from about 0.40" to 0.80". High temperatures
should only be in the 50s Sunday. Periodic chances for showers
will continue the rest of the week as upper level energy remains
over the region. Heavy rain is not expected at this time. High
temperatures will moderate into the 70s Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025
A couple of sfc boundaries will be monitored for implications to
the aviation weather forecast this period. The first boundary
is more of a stalled feature stretching from near KVPZ to just
south of KGSH to just south of KANQ. Low clouds are a bit more
prevalent to the north of this boundary and would expect this to
continue to be the case through daybreak. Another cold frontal
boundary is working across central Illinois at this time and may
be the focus for isolated shower development across northern
Indiana this afternoon. Low level moisture/instability will be
more lacking today in comparison to yesterday and will continue
to keep terminals dry at this time. Given positioning of the
stalled northern boundary across northern Indiana, some increase
in low level lift with approaching mid level may allow
deterioration of cigs across KSBN after 09Z with at least a
potential of some IFR cigs early this morning. With the northern
boundary not expected to make much southward progress,
more optimistic conditions will be maintained for KFWA with the
06Z TAFs, although a period of cigs below 2k feet is possible
this morning. A return to VFR conditions is expected this
afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 2, 3:24 AM EDT---------------
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