JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 3:22 PM EDT973
FXUS63 KJKL 041922
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The periodic potential for showers and thunderstorms continues
through the next week.
- Near normal to below normal temperatures will envelop eastern
Kentucky through most of the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
The heavier shower and thunderstorm activity is departing
northeast into RLX's CWA at mid-afternoon with mainly scattered
light to moderate showers remaining across the JKL CWA. Some small
hail has been noted with some of the stronger cores. Temperatures
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, generally coolest in the
vicinity of Lake Cumberland and at locations recently impacted by
showers. The system responsible for the cool, damp weather is an
~552 dam cutoff low spinning nearly over Frankfort, KY.
The model guidance is in good agreement showing the upper low
wobbling but moving very little through 0z Tuesday. A potent 500H
vorticity max, which was likely the primary forcing mechanism for
the stronger convection over far eastern Kentucky earlier this
afternoon, is departing into West Virginia as it rotates around the
parent upper low. Behind that, a weakening surface trough is moving
eastward from Central Kentucky, and is favored to bring a temporary
uptick in shower coverage for locations west of US-23 later this
afternoon until instability diminishes with the loss of daytime
heating. Heading into tonight, low stratus, patchy fog, and drizzle
are likely to affect the area again as the coldest of the 925 mb air
mass pivots around the southern side of the low and into eastern
Kentucky. Late in the night, another strong 500H vorticity lobe
rotating around the upper low is favored by CAMs and the RAP13 to
bring a rising shower threat spreading from southwest to northeast
toward/just after sunrise. This activity could easily linger for
most of the daylight hours on Monday. The upper low may finally
start to lift into Ohio on Monday Night. If that is the case, the
threat of a few light showers will remain but some partial clearing
is possible as the column dries out slightly, especially near and
west of I-75.
In sensible terms, look for scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening to taper
off, leaving behind a damp, cloudy night with some drizzle in spots.
A stray shower cannot be ruled out at just about any time and in
fact will yield to more numerous showers spreading northeast towards
morning. Tonight will be cool with low temperatures primarily in the
mid 40s. On Monday, the combination of abundant cloud cover and
showers will likely keep high temperatures in the 50s for most
locations, though a few of the deepest valleys well east of the
Pottsville Escarpment could flirt with 60F. A rumble of thunder and
some small hail cannot be ruled out with the heaviest activity. The
showers and any thunderstorms diminish by Monday evening, but at
least isolated showers are likely to linger into Monday night. More
breaks in the clouds are possible overnight with low temperatures
primarily ranging in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 515 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
The long-term period will open with a blocky large-scale weather
pattern over the CONUS. The 03/12z model suite is in good agreement
on Monday morning showing an ~553 dam cutoff low centered over
Kentucky while a decaying omega-type blocking ridge extends
northward through the Plains, Upper Great Lakes, and into adjacent
portions of Canada. A second ~554 dam low is centered over the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a positively-tilted trough
extends from an ~507 dam low over northern Baffin Island southwest
to over the Northern Rockies.
The first upper low over the Commonwealth will drift back to the
northeast on Monday across the Bluegrass, and toward the Upper
Ohio Valley on Monday night. Guidance shows the northern stream
trough sweeping through southern Canada, squashing the blocking
ridge sufficiently to recapture this cutoff low by mid-week.
However, there is substantial spread with regard to how quickly
this might occur (Tuesday night-Wednesday night). Meanwhile, the
closed low over the Desert Southwest will become trapped south of
a developing rex-block ridge extending into the Northern Plains.
Consequently, the closed low will drift toward Missouri while an
associated warm front begins lifting northward toward the
Tennessee Valley. At the same time, potent energy dropping out of
the Arctic will cause the troughing over over eastern Canada to
dig deeply over New England and potentially close off into a
another cutoff low. This would send another cold front diving
southward on the western side of the low. By this time, there is
large spread in the solutions as to where the northeastern cutoff
low might be. Model agreement is slightly better with the western
cutoff low to our west, favoring an unphased solution where the
low dives southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by late in
the week.
Sensible weather through the period will be strongly dependent upon
the evolution of this convoluted, blocky upper level pattern.
Forecast confidence is high that Monday will be a cool, mostly
cloudy, and showery day with maximum temperatures hard-pressed to
reach 60F in many locales. As the first upper low starts to drift
away, the possibility for some clearer skies grows during the
Monday night to Tuesday timeframe. This would allow for some
modest ridge- valley temperature splits at night with lows in the
40s and mild afternoon readings in the 60s to near 70F. Rain
chances are likely to become more confined to northeastern
Kentucky before ending entirely. Clouds and shower chances are
favored to increase again from the southwest during late Tuesday
night to Wednesday night timeframe and persist at least until the
passage of cold front late in the week. The deterministic NBM
favors temperatures reaching their zenith of the work week on
Thursday with widespread highs in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening,
except briefly worse in passing showers and possible
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be southwesterly at 5 to 10
kts; though, locally gusty and erratic near stronger showers and
thunderstorms. The convective showers will taper this evening
with the loss of daytime heating but the flight categories are
likely worsen overnight to IFR/low-end MVFR. The lowest ceilings
and visibilities are expected at JKL, SJS, and SYM late in the
night. The next area of rainfall is expected to push in from the
southwest Monday morning with limited improvement in flying
conditions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 4, 3:22 PM EDT---------------
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