CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 9:25 PM EDT762
FXUS61 KCLE 040125
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move into southeast Ohio overnight, then
gradually weaken as it lingers in the region through Tuesday.
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday then
be replaced by stronger high pressure building south across the
Great Lakes Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
925 pm update...
The ongoing near term forecast remains on track with no
impactful or significant adjustments needed at this time. It
will continue to be a soggy and cool night ahead.
Previous discussion...
A steady rain has been ongoing today as moisture continues to
stream north ahead of an upper level trough closing off over the
Ohio Valley. A favorable region of deformation is setting up
from Central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania with an uptick in
rainfall rates through the remainder of the afternoon. In
addition the 925-850mb front is tightening up in this region and
we are seeing overrunning along this boundary. Rain will tend
to become more focused across the southern counties through the
evening and many northern areas will see a break in
precipitation overnight. However by late tonight the upper level
low will pivot northeast into the area and an uptick in rain
will occur. The greatest coverage is expected across NW Ohio but
will extend in an arc towards NE Ohio.
Dry air in the mid-levels will start to work in from the south
towards midday on Sunday and clouds may thin enough for some heating
and instability to develop. MU CAPE is only expected to reach about
500 J/kg but enough that we could see showers or possibly a few
thunderstorms fill back in across the southeastern counties during
the afternoon. The mid-level dry slot wraps as far north as Lake
Erie by Sunday evening allowing more breaks in the rain to develop
but overall not bringing an end to showers yet. With the upper level
low in the region, looks like another spoke of moisture and energy
will rotate northwest overnight bringing continued chances for
rain.
Much of the area has received between 0.25 to 0.75 rain today.
Another half inch to an inch is likely through Sunday night. The
slow rates have been manageable but a few of our rivers, will
creep up into action stage and possibly reach minor flooding.
Some rivers to watch include Killbuck(Wayne and Holmes
Counties), Eagle Creek(Trumbull County), and the Black
River(Lorain County).
As for temperatures, the northeast flow off Lake Erie and rain has
kept temperatures in the upper 40s in the north and low 50s in the
south. Lows will generally be in the 40s tonight. The pattern for
tomorrow will be similar with the coolest conditions downwind of
Lake Erie in NW Ohio with temperatures creeping up to near 60 in
the south where more breaks are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Over our CWA, cyclonic SE'erly flow aloft on Monday should back to
cyclonic NW'erly to N'erly flow aloft by daybreak Wednesday as a
vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft wobbles NNE'ward
from the Mid OH Valley to near Lake Erie on Monday through Tuesday
and then wobbles ENE'ward toward the northeastern United States by
daybreak Wednesday based on the consensus of 12Z/Sat NWP model
guidance. Simultaneously, the surface trough associated with this
low pressure system is expected to linger over the Lake Erie region
and Upper OH Valley. Moist isentropic ascent associated with the low
pressure system's weakening warm conveyor belt will generate
abundant cloud cover over our region.
On Monday, weak low-level WAA associated with the low pressure
system's cyclonic circulation and peeks of sunshine should allow
late afternoon highs to reach mainly the lower 60's to lower 70's.
Given the expected track and slow movement of the vertically-stacked
low and resulting significant deformation of the air temperature
field at the surface and aloft (e.g. 850 mb temperature field) via
the slow-moving low's cyclonic circulation, a slightly cooler air
mass should overspread our region from the west and south Monday
night into Tuesday. Thus, Monday night's lows are expected to reach
the mid 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Tuesday. Despite peeks of
sunshine on Tuesday, cooler afternoon highs in the 60's are
expected. The cooler air mass will linger across our region Tuesday
night and contribute to lows that should reach the mid 40's to mid
50's around daybreak Wednesday.
Periodic rain showers are expected during the short-term period,
especially on Monday through Tuesday evening, due to the following:
moist isentropic ascent associated with the aforementioned warm
conveyor belt; low-level convergence/moist ascent associated
with the vertically-stacked low's cyclonic circulation. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible during the late morning
through early evening hours of Monday and Tuesday, respectively,
due to weak to perhaps moderate diurnal destabilization of a
relatively-moist boundary layer amidst the aforementioned low-
level convergence. Moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear
should allow showers and thunderstorms to be organized and may
allow a few storms to become severe, especially on Monday, when
greater boundary layer moisture/destabilization and stronger
deep-layer bulk shear are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday, a shortwave trough embedded in cyclonic NW'erly flow
aloft and an attendant cold front should sweep SE'ward across our
CWA. Low-level convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and
moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the shortwave trough axis,
should trigger scattered rain showers. Intervals of sunshine and
daytime heating should allow daytime highs to reach the mid 60's to
lower 70's prior to the cold front's passage.
Based on overall good agreement between the 12Z/Sat runs of the
ECMWF and GFS models, chose to have our official forecast depict dry
weather Wednesday night through this upcoming Saturday. This is when
high pressure ridging at the surface and aloft should build from the
north-central United States and northern Great Lakes, and be
accompanied by stabilizing subsidence in our region. A downward
trend in cloud cover should contribute to lows reaching mainly the
upper 30's to upper 40's around daybreak Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday mornings, respectively. That same trend should contribute
to late afternoon highs reaching the mid 50's to mid 60's on
Thursday, the upper 50's to upper 60's on Friday, and the mid 60's
to mid 70's on Saturday. Sufficient daytime heating of surface air
over land surrounding relatively-cold Lake Erie and a fairly-weak
synoptic MSLP gradient may permit lake breeze development late
Saturday morning through early evening.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The overall message for aviation weather will be IFR to LIFR
conditions continuing tonight into Sunday. The one exception is
TOL which is starting off with VFR ceilings this evening.
Ceilings at TOL will lower to MVFR late tonight into early
Sunday morning and eventually down to IFR by Sunday afternoon.
The rest of the TAF sites will generally stay with IFR ceilings
and MVFR visibility due to light rain and misty conditions. A
few TAF sites like ERI, MFD, and CLE may have several hours of
LIFR ceilings late tonight into early Sunday morning. By late
Sunday afternoon, CAK, YNG and ERI may see ceilings climb back
into low end MVFR. We will continue to see rounds of light rain
spread over the area tonight and Sunday causing MVFR visibility
reductions of 2sm to 5sm at times. Winds will be from the north
or northeast 7 to 14 knots with some gusts returning up to 20 or
25 knots on Sunday for locations closer to the lakeshore.
Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
expected Sunday night through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 AM EDT this Monday for
nearshore waters from The Islands to Geneva-on-the-Lake. Farther
west, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 PM today until 10
PM Sunday for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to The Islands.
Farther east, the advisory is in effect from 9 PM today until 4 AM
Monday for nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley.
NE'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots are expected to impact Lake Erie
through Sunday night as a low wobbles near the Mid OH Valley and
weakens slowly, and a ridge attempts to build from the Upper
Midwest. However, a tightening MSLP gradient between the low and
ridge will allow NE'erly winds to freshen to around 20 to 30 knots
for a time overnight tonight into Sunday. Waves of 3 feet or less
through this early evening build to as large as 5 to 10 feet tonight
through Sunday. During Sunday night, waves will likely subside to 3
feet or less by daybreak Monday.
During Monday through Tuesday, NE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on
Lake Erie should veer gradually to SW'erly as the aforementioned low
wobbles generally N'ward from the Mid OH Valley to near Lake Erie.
Waves of 3 feet or less persist. During Tuesday night through
Wednesday, the low should wobble ENE'ward toward New England and
allow a trailing cold front to sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie late
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Behind the front, a ridge should
build from the northern Great Lakes through Thursday. The cold front
passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to
NW'erly. Farther behind the front, NW'erly winds around 5 to 15
knots veer gradually toward NE'erly in response to the building
ridge. Waves should remain 3 feet or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10/77
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 9:25 PM EDT---------------
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