BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 28, 1:14 AM EDT799
FXUS61 KBOX 280514
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery conditions continue into tonight and skies clear. High
pressure returns with dry conditions for Monday. Dry and mild
conditions continue Tuesday, but a cold front arrives mid week.
After a few showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. A
more prolonged period with a chance for showers late this week
as a low pressure passes nearby.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Gusty winds continue through this evening
* Skies clear overnight
Tweaked timing of cloud cover and diminishing winds. The gusty
winds of 30-40 mph should diminish through 10 PM. Otherwise,
clearing skies overnight.
Previous Discussion...
Winds gusting to 35 mph -- and up to 45 mph in the higher
terrain -- before the sun goes down tonight, then they will
begin to drop off. Breezy conditions are expected to persist
overnight and winds shift to the northwest. The cold pool aloft
will move east going into Monday morning and a milder airmass
will begin to make its approach, raising 925 mb temperatures
back up to near 10C and 850 mb temperatures around 5C. The
clouds will exit with the colder airmass. Lows overnight are
expected to be in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Dry and warm with little wind
High pressure shifts over the region along with mid-level
ridging, which will stop the wind and increase temperatures. The
milder airmass moves in, and daytime mixing will aid in warming
the surface. The high's center will sit to our south, leading to
winds shifting more S to SW and WAA also increasing temperatures
at the surface. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 70s,
with the Cape and Islands slightly cooler in the low to mid 60s.
Winds are expected to calm Monday night, and along with clear
skies, radiational cooling will likely take hold. Continued to
blend CONSMOS guidance in to account for the cooler low
temperatures in areas known to radiate well. Lows in these areas
(Martha's Vineyard, parts of the interior, and areas along the
I-495 corridor) will likely dip in to the low 40s. Elsewhere,
expect lows in the lower 50s and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Warm and dry conditions Tuesday. Few showers are possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching
cold front.
* Near seasonable temperatures Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
While Thursday is dry, rain chances return for Friday into
Saturday.
Expecting mainly above normal temperatures for this portion of
the forecast. Although temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday
should be closer to normal for early May due to a high pressure
moving across northern New England. Another period of near
normal temperatures is possible next Sunday as another high
pressure should be approaching our region.
Mainly dry conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday. There
is a low risk for a few showers ahead of a cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. However, this front is somewhat
moisture-starved. Clouds are likely to be more prevalent than
showers. Where it does rain, rainfall generally no more than a
few hundredths.
A greater risk for rainfall is anticipated for a period or two
between Thursday night and Saturday night. This is when we
should see a low pressure move across the Great Lakes into the
Saint Lawrence River valley. The fronts associated with this low
pressure will take some time to clear southern New England. The
warm front is more Thursday night into Friday, with a cold front
passage more Friday night into Saturday. A secondary cold front
my cross our region Saturday night as well. Not thinking this
entire period will be a washout, but we will need to keep an eye
out for some wet weather at times.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z: High confidence.
VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts.
Today and Tonight: High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts to near 20 kt before 18z. Winds
shift W to SW before going calm across much of the region.
Tuesday: High Confidence.
VFR. SW winds 10-15 kts. Gusts to 25 kts.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Potential for a late day seabreeze, ESE, around 20z to 22z.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Monday...
NW winds will continue to gust to 30 kt tonight with seas at
3-6 ft. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue tonight through
tomorrow morning before winds start to drop off during the day
with the arrival of high pressure.
Monday Night...
Seas will recede heading into Monday night, with
heights only up to 3 ft. Winds shift from NW to SW. Winds to 10
kt will be possible over the waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ231-
232.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ233>237-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
255.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Belk/Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 28, 1:14 AM EDT----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
