IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 12:20 PM EDT703
FXUS63 KIWX 271620
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1220 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions today into Monday with partly to mostly clear
skies. Highs today will be in the 60s, then rise into the 70s
Monday. Lows tonight in the 40s, then in the 60s Monday
night.
- Thunderstorms are possible across the area late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to severe storms
are possible west of I 69, with the main threat damaging
winds. Confidence is low as storms will be weakening and they
arrive around 1-2 am ET when conditions are less favorable.
- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon
and evening. The best potential will be southeast of I 69,
with the main threats damaging winds and large hail. Isolated
tornadoes are possible. Confidence in severe weather potential
is medium.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Cold start this morning with a few locations across the
northwest portions of the CWA currently as of 3 AM EDT down to
around 33 degrees this morning. KSBN was reporting 36 degrees.
Will see temperatures rebound later today with ridging pushing
eastward into the region and light winds turning more
southeasterly. Drier airmass still in place with dew points in
the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs in the 60s across the area
today.
Monday we start to see southerly winds increasing, gusts up to
35 mph possible, which will start to bring an influx of
moisture with dew points increasing into the upper 40s to upper
50s by Monday afternoon. This is ahead of a surface low pressure
system that pulls out of the Four-Corners region and moves
northeastward towards the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. Highs
on Monday will be warmer yet with temperatures in the 70s with a
few locations in our southwest parts of the CWA perhaps getting
into the lower 80s. That low pressure system will bring severe
weather to eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI on Monday
afternoon and evening. Further influx of moisture will continue
ahead of the cold front into the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday and surface dew points will get into the 60s by
Tuesday morning.
The recent guidance has been indicating that the cold front
will approach our area a bit earlier than originally thought.
Arriving by early Tuesday morning. This will increase chances
of showers and thunderstorms to enter the western portions of
the CWA around 1-2 AM EDT Tuesday. A strong storm would still be
possible as the front arrives but with the nighttime arrival
will help to mitigate the strength of the storms. The earlier
frontal passage will also keep a majority of the area in a not
so ideal diurnal heating setup and furthermore cause increased
cloud cover across the area which will help to mitigate direct
solar insolation and subsequent surface warming. MU CAPE values
on Tuesday afternoon will be around 1000-1500 J/kg, mid level
lapse rates around 6-7 deg/km, and Bulk Shear values of 30 to
35 kts. These ingredients do make for the potential for some
organized severe threats including strong gusty winds and hail.
A few isolated tornadoes would not be out of the question as
helicity values southeast portions of the CWA will be around
100 m2/s2. SPC Day 3 convective outlook does currently have our
southwest portions of the CWA in a slight risk on Tuesday.
The cold frontal boundary will push southeast by early
Wednesday morning but will become more orientated in a east to
west direction over the southern portions of the area and become
more of a quasi-stationary boundary before pushing back
northward as a warm frontal boundary on Wednesday bringing
isentropic showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms on
Wednesday. Any storms are not expected to be severe at this time.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s across the area with the
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the area where a
few locations may see low 70s.
The boundary pushes further northward on Thursday again with
increased chances of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms,
with the better chances for T-storms on Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures warm back into the upper 60s and low 70s
albeit temporarily as troughing over the central CONUS pushes
eastward and brings cooler temperatures and drier conditions to
the area into the weekend. Friday through Sunday high
temperatures will only be in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025
Dry and stable conditions will allow VFR conditions to persist
on the backside of sfc high pressure. Light winds otherwise this
afternoon into tonight, picking up a bit out of the south on
Monday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 27, 12:20 PM EDT---------------
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