BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 7:27 PM EDT948
FXUS61 KBOX 232327
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly tonight as a result of radiational cooling. Pleasant and dry
under high pressure continuing through Thursday, with the exception
of a slight chance of showers Thursday evening/night across northern
Massachusetts. Unseasonably warm on Friday before A system on
Saturday brings the next chance for widespread rainfall, though
exact details remain uncertainty. Drier conditions return late
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Clear skies, light winds, and cooler temps tonight.
Zonal flow in the mid- and upper- levels continues tonight as a
surface high builds to the south. Decreasing winds and clear skies
will allow for a good amount of radiational cooling and decoupling
of the boundary layer, leading to overnight lows in the high 30s to
low 40s outside of the typical urban corridors to cool into the
upper 30s and low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Short Term
Key Messages...
* Warmer, clear skies, and light winds for a pleasant Thursday.
* Chance of showers Thursday evening north of the Mass Pike.
A mid-level ridge stretching into southern Quebec together with
surface high pressure just offshore will prolong the quiet and dry
weather through Thursday. The only exception is for western and
central MA which may be in close enough proximity to a weak
shortwave and moisture plume to our north to support widely
scattered showers Thursday evening north of the Mass Pike.
Temperature-wise, we will warm a few degrees on Thursday afternoon
as warm advection in the low levels pushes 925 mb temps to 12-15C
which would result in highs in the upper 60s and mid 70s across the
interior and high 50s to mid 60s along the immediate coasts, Cape,
and Islands. Wind gusts pick up a little for Thursday night along
the south coast, Cape, and Islands as a warm front approaches
southern New England.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Unseasonably warm Friday
* Soaking rain Saturday, but timing remains uncertain
* Drying out Sunday with cool and blustery conditions
* Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday through Wednesday
Unseasonably warm on Friday as flow turns SW and 850mb temps warm to
+10C. Even with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to weak WAA, high
temps will reach the mid to upper 70s to even low 80s near the CT
river valley. Closer to the coasts, highs will struggle to jump out
of the low to mid-60s with a modest southerly breeze.
A short wave trough exits the Great Lakes Saturday as a surface low
out ahead of it passes over northern New England. This system will
bring our next round of precipitation to the region as PWATs
increase to 1.3 to 1.5 inches. The timing of the rain remains
uncertain as the GFS remains faster than the Euro and Canadian.
However, the 12z run has started to trend slower, with the bulk of
the precipitation falling during the daylight hours on Saturday.
There could be a rumble or two of thunder, as steep mid-level lapse
rates allow for elevated instability to build to 100-300J/kg. As of
now, still expecting a modest rainfall as ensemble probs from the
12z GEFS and ECWMF show moderate to high probs of 40-70% for a half
inch of rain. Ensemble probs drop off significantly for greater than
1 inch, ranging between 0-10%. Thinking there will be pockets of
greater than 1 inch, but they will be more localized to pockets
where convection can help increase rain rates. It will be quite
windy on Saturday as a southerly LLJ of 45-55 knots develops over
eastern MA and RI. With cold ocean waters still in the 40s, it will
be tough to mix down much of that wind. Hence, gusts should stay in
the 25-35mph range. High temps range from the low to upper 60s.
Drying out Sunday as cool and dry air advects in from the north.
Winds turn gusty again around 30-40mph as the pressure gradient
remains tight, and northerly winds promote good mixing. High temps
will struggle to top the low 60s even with mostly sunny skies.
Upper-level ridge builds back in to start the week with mainly dry
conditions through Wednesday. High temperatures quickly moderate
back into the low 70s on Monday, with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z TAF Update:
Tonight: High Confidence
VFR. Northerly winds 5-10kts becoming light and variable in the
early morning hours.
Thursday: High Confidence.
VFR. Winds light and variable, becoming southerly 5-10 kts in
the afternoon. Expect haze and smoke to begin moving into CT
during the afternoon which could cause some visibility
obstruction.
Thursday Night: High Confidence.
VFR. Primarily SSWly winds 5-10kts with a few sporadic gusts up
to 15kts. Smoke/haze continues to spread into the rest of SNE
with visibility obstruction possible.
KBOS TAF...High confidence...
Light northerly winds tonight. Sea breeze kicks in early
tomorrow between 12-13z. Sea breeze kicks out in the late
afternoon/evening, then winds aloft begin to increase, bringing
some light wind shear Thursday evening. Smoke/haze could cause
some visibility obstruction overnight Thursday into Friday
morning.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Light and variable winds tonight turning southerly tomorrow.
Smoke/haze could cause some visibility obstruction as early as
Thursday afternoon, possibly into Friday morning.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Key Messages
* Generally quiet conditions over the coastal marine zones through
Thursday night.
Tonight
Quiet and calm across the coastal waters tonight with winds becoming
light south/southwest winds becoming northeast by tomorrow morning.
Seas generally 2 feet or less.
Tomorrow
High pressure to the south of the coastal waters will support
another calm day with light northeast winds in the morning becoming
steady out of the south during the afternoon from 10 to 15
knots. Seas remain 2 feet or less.
Tomorrow Night
South/southwest winds up to 10 knots with seas building to 2-3 feet.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, slight
chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McMinn/KP
NEAR TERM...McMinn/RM
SHORT TERM...McMinn/RM
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...McMinn/KP
MARINE...McMinn/KP/RM
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 7:27 PM EDT----------------
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