IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 26, 5:02 AM EDT698
FXUS63 KIWX 260934
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
502 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures today with highs in the 50s and low 60s
(cooler by the lake). Low temperatures tonight into Sunday
morning into the 30s. Frost will be possible in areas mainly
west of US-31 and north of US-6. Temperatures then trend
warmer through Tuesday.
- Thunderstorms possible across the area Tuesday through early
Wednesday morning. Storms may become strong to severe,
especially Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still considerable
uncertainty on the details at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
In the wake of yesterday's system a cooler and drier airmass has
arrived. With the increasing northerly flow, a combination of
cooled air flowing over the lake and smaller dew point
depressions from the moist surface layer from recent rains
leaving low clouds in place which have helped to keep
temperatures modest with 4 AM EDT current temperatures across
the area in the mid 40s.
Breezy to gusty northerly winds today with high temperatures
today struggling to get out of the 50s and low 60s for most of
the area, however cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan
shoreline today with lake temperatures still in the mid to
upper 40s. The next concern will be low temperatures late
tonight into Sunday morning in which temperatures will drop into
the 30s across the area with a mid- level ridge axis setting up
over the region. Some areas of frost due to the increased
radiational cooling and reduction in winds will be possible,
mainly north of US-6 and west of US-31. One thing to watch is
the redevelopment of some areas of low clouds/fog that could
keep temperatures slightly warmer mitigating the frost issue in
spots. Will let the day shift take another look at this
potential.
Broad ridging moving eastward into the region from over the
central CONUS will bring warming temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday. Sunday highs will be slightly warmer than today with
highs in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Sunday night into Monday
will only drop into the upper 40s. Monday will then be warmer
yet with the southwesterly flow increasing pushing highs into
the 70s. A few locations in the southwestern portions of the CWA
may see 80 degrees. Increase in moisture advection will also
take place with dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s
increasing into the 50s by Monday afternoon. A low pressure
system that will develop over the Four-Corners region on Monday
will begin to push northeastward into the central Plains and Midwestern
regions. This system will increase chances of strong to severe
thunderstorms for those areas on Monday but could see late
Monday into early Tuesday morning some of that convective
debris push eastward into the area increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could remain
strong so will need to monitor that. This potential would also
keep clouds over the area during the day on Tuesday which could
keep solar insolation minimized and the threat of severe
weather Tuesday afternoon lower. So again, uncertainty in this
exact evolution will make the difference in expected storm
potential for Tuesday afternoon/evening. SPC still has a 15%
chance of severe thunderstorms for the entire area on Tuesday.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday but any cloud cover
may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler.
With a cold front pushing through late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning cooler temperatures will return on Wednesday with highs
only in the 60s and cooler near the Lake Michigan shoreline
areas. Troughing will set up over the Great Lakes by Thursday
into the weekend which will increase clouds and chances for
rain showers over the CWA with a few rumbles of thunder possible
especially Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will stay in
the 60s Thursday through at least Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Predominantly IFR/LIFR for the start of the TAF period, then
improve towards VFR by the afternoon and evening hours. As of
this writing we have stratus building in beneath the inversion
and advancing southeastward. KSBN is resting around 500 feet
right now, with much of the guidance suggesting ceilings could
fall as low as 300-400 feet through at least 9z. Models are a
little conflicted in regards to if this lower deck will
spread/develop into KFWA, and if it does it looks to remain
around 600 to 700 feet. Currently KFWA rests at VFR with a
few clouds at 900 feet, and satellite/obs show the stratus over
HHG, KASW, and we have it here at KIWX [700-800 feet]. Have a
tempo for MVFR as I suspect we'll at least have ceilings around
1000-2000 feet soon-but expect the period to start out a bit
lower at around 700 feet. Drier air will infiltrate the area and
as it does we'll see ceilings lift towards MVFR through the
middle of the day tomorrow before clearing out in the evening.
Winds will be west to northwest, gusting to around 25kts at
KSBN and around 22kts at KFWA. Expect gustiness may damper later
into the night and become more intermittent-especially at KFWA.
N-NW winds gusting to around 23kts Saturday will eventually
become light and variable by the evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 26, 5:02 AM EDT---------------
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