JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 4:15 AM EDT842
FXUS63 KJKL 230815
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
415 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the area this afternoon and
tonight- mainly along and south of Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor.
- More widespread showers/storms are possible on Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday, with the best chances on Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Severe storms are not expected.
- Normal to above normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
High clouds continue to dissipate over SE Kentucky from a stalled
cold front over VA and TN. Later today, this front will progress
into the area as a warm front this afternoon bringing with it
shower and thunderstorm chances beginning around 18Z/2PM EDT.
These storm chances generally remain along and south of the Hal
Rogers/KY-80 corridor. Temperatures today climb into the upper
70s to low 80s under light and variable winds. Showers and storms
look to taper off heading into this evening with temperatures
cooling into the 50s.
Thursday, trapped moisture from a stalled front located in the
lower Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valley region will advect north
with some assistance from an offshore high, south of Bermuda.
Showers and thunderstorms will occur across all of eastern
Kentucky through Thursday. A general tenth to a quarter inch of
rain can be expected with areas seeing intense downpours or
training storms approaching half an inch through the day.
Temperatures generally remain in the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
Thursday evening showers and thunderstorms continue out ahead of
an approaching upper-level disturbance. Temperatures remain
fairly warm, around 60.
Friday through Tuesday, a series of shortwaves move across the
area producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. The shortwave
that moves through Friday and Saturday looks to be the most
significant. Multiple model runs have had PWAT approaches 1.5
inches during the day Friday, along with dewpoints potentially in
the low to mid 60s. The WPC has put the entire state under a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Friday. Localized
instances of urban/areal flooding and minor small stream rises
are possible in response to this potential heavy rainfall,
especially if any particular location sees multiple rounds of
activity. Sunday looks to remain the driest as this day looks to
remain between systems. Temperatures generally remain in the 70s
through Sunday, with next week potentially starting in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High clouds
continue to stream over SE Kentucky as a stalled cold front
remains to the southeast, over VA and TN. Weak return flow from
the south will allow this stalled front to move north as a warm
front, bringing shower chances to TAF sites KSME and KLOZ
beginning around 18Z. A PROB30 group was used for this window of
shower activity. There may be chances of thunderstorms, south of
the above TAF sites during the same period (18Z-21Z) but the
probability of a thunderstorm on station was around 20 percent so
it was left out of the TAFS at this time. Winds will remain light
and variable throughout the period.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 23, 4:15 AM EDT---------------
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