JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 4:43 PM EDT650
FXUS63 KJKL 222043
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
443 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the area - mainly along and
south of Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor on Wednesday.
- More widespread showers/storms are possible on Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday, with the best chances on Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Severe storms are not expected.
- Normal to above normal temperatures are expected through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered to the north of the
Ohio Valley and this is keeping the winds light through eastern
Kentucky and slowly working to clear the low clouds in the
southeast part of the state. These clouds are associated with a
nearby cold front stalled across the border with Tennessee.
Showers from this front are staying just south of the border, as
well. Temperatures currently vary from the mid 60s in the
northwest to the the mid 70s in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid
light and variable winds, dewpoints range from the mid 40s
northwest to the mid 50s in the far southeast.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term period. They
all depict Kentucky between significant upper level features
through the short term. To the north a series of 5h troughs will
pass through the Great lakes for the middle and latter part of
the week while ridging is relegated to the far southeast section
of the nation and the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, zonal, but
slowing, mid-level flow will be parked over the state with only
weak packets of energy crossing the region into Thursday morning.
The very small model spread supports using the NBM as the starting
point with minimal adjustments needed through the period - mainly
to include more of a terrain distinction to the temperatures most
places tonight and in the northeast on Wednesday night.
Sensible weather features a period warm conditions through
Thursday morning with a small chance for showers or a thunderstorm
confined to the mainly southern parts of the forecast area. This
is due to high pressure holding court over the northern portion of
the JKL CWA while the stalled frontal boundary is found just on
the other side of the Tennessee border. Dryness for most of
eastern Kentucky will allow for a small to moderate ridge and
valley temperature split each night, though the south will have
more clouds around to disrupt this mechanism each night. As the
high pressure area departs the region to the east, return flow
will further moisten this part of the state and probably allow
for some showers developing Wednesday afternoon and lingering
that night for the south. There should be enough sunshine around
on Wednesday for warm afternoon temperatures to above normal.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding more terrain distinction to the temperatures tonight and to
a lesser extent Wednesday night. As for PoPs - added some details
from the CAMs for the southern parts of the area from Wednesday on
in that return flow.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
The long term forecast period will be defined by an active weather
pattern, featuring multiple rounds of showers and storms and
seasonably warm temperatures. When the period opens on Thursday
morning, Eastern Kentucky will be positioned within a wide warm
sector. Southerly to southwesterly low/mid level flow will advect
moisture into the region. As a train of shortwave disturbances
approaches aloft, showers and thunderstorms will spread across the
region on Thursday and then continue overnight. Thursday's sensible
weather will feel almost summer-like, with scattered convective
activity, afternoon highs near 80, and overnight lows near 60. Along
these lines, any storms that develop on Thursday should behave
similarly to a stereotypical summertime thunderstorm. Severe weather
parameters are unremarkable in this time frame, and convection is
likely to be sub-severe and somewhat pulsy as a result.
The aforementioned southwesterly flow persists into Friday as a
better-defined low-pressure system moves through the Upper Midwest.
Out ahead of this system's surface cold front, showers and storms
are forecast to continue across the commonwealth, perhaps with
greater spatial coverage than the day before. The severe weather
threat will remain low, but the persistent moisture return out ahead
of the front will yield increasing PWAT values. Probabilistic
ensemble guidance suggests that PWATs in excess of 1.25 inches are
likely across the entire forecast area by Friday night; the LREF
resolves a greater than 65 percent probability of this threshold
being met across our forecast area. Likewise, the deterministic PWAT
values resolved in the GFS and ECMWF models are much above the
climatological normals in their respective databases. In sensible
weather terms, this means that Friday's rain could be heavy at times
and that the sky will be mostly cloudy. WPC continues to highlight
the forecast area in a Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall
Outlook as a result. Localized instances of urban/areal flooding and
minor small stream rises are possible in response to this potential
heavy rainfall, especially if any particular location sees multiple
rounds of activity. The cloudier skies could relegate afternoon
highs to the 70s on Friday, but if any breaks are realized, a few
spots could reach 80. The cold front is expected to begin advancing
across the forecast area by Saturday morning, leading to mild Friday
night temperatures.
Saturday's forecast is characterized by this frontal passage, and
rain chances will decrease from NW to SE as the day progresses. In
its wake, temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs in the
low/mid 70s and overnight lows near 50. Broad ridging will build
into the area by Sunday, which looks to be the driest day of the
forecast period. A surface high centered in the Great Lakes will
advect a modified continental airmass into the Ohio River Valley via
N/NE flow, keeping temperatures stagnant and skies clear. Headed
into the next work week, the ridging and its associated surface high
will propagate eastward. This will eventually place Eastern Kentucky
in a regime of SW return flow early next week and prime the
atmosphere for renewed precipitation chances. Timing details remain
uncertain this far out, but the next system's warm front could move
across the forecast area on Monday. Once it does so, expect high
temperatures to climb back into the 80s, marking a rather warm end
to the month of April.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. For the rest
of the day, skies will continue to attempt to clear in the wake
of a stalling front to the south of the state. Later tonight and
into Wednesday morning any return flow showers will be limited to
south of the TAF sites. Look for some late night valley fog but
likely not to affect the terminals. Winds will remain light and
variable throughout the period.
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 22, 4:43 PM EDT---------------
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