MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 17, 12:58 PM CDT ...New Aviation...393
FXUS64 KMOB 171758
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
An upper ridge extending from the western Gulf to Ontario Canada
will shift over the eastern CONUS through Friday morning. This
ridge will continue moving eastward over the western Atlantic this
weekend as a positively-tilted upper trough over the Rockies
swings eastward, becoming negatively-tilted over the central
Plains by noon Sunday. This trough will then lift northeast across
the Great lakes region. Dry weather conditions will persist today
through Easter morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm
coverage increasing to 20-30% Sunday afternoon west of the Alabama
River, and then drops off Sunday night. Scattered to numerous
showers follow for Monday through Tuesday as additional shortwave
energy arrives from the west.
A surface ridge setting up across the southeast states will
largely persist through the entire forecast period, keeping a
light southerly flow intact. This will result in a gradual return
in boundary layer moisture setting up a potential for patchy late
night fog development. This signal is showing up from the short
range ensembles in fog probabilities for Friday night, increasing
up to 40-60% after 3 AM north of I-10, continuing to shortly after
daybreak. We may need to monitor for a possible Dense Fog
Advisory.
Temperatures will continue to trend upward to above normal (at
times much above normal) through the middle of next week, with
highs in the lower to middle 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast. Some high temps may approach 90 degrees over the weekend.
Lows will climb into the lower to middle 60s inland by the
weekend, with upper 60s at the coast. Given drier air in place, no
heat related concerns are anticipated. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025
VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24 hours for many
locations. Some patchy fog may develop late tonight over interior
portions of the local area, with higher probabilities located over
the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama. This
could result in brief reductions in visibility to MVFR or IFR. Any
fog that does develop will dissipate after sunrise. Southeasterly
to southerly winds today at around 10 knots will become light
tonight. Winds will increase late Friday morning, with gusts
potentially approaching 20 knots. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
A light easterly flow will become southeasterly to southerly this
afternoon, and then persist through early next week. No hazards to
small craft are expected. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 59 81 64 82 65 81 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 40
Pensacola 64 77 66 79 67 79 69 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30
Destin 65 78 66 78 68 79 70 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Evergreen 51 85 58 86 60 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 50
Waynesboro 55 87 63 87 62 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 60
Camden 53 85 59 85 60 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 60
Crestview 52 84 58 84 60 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 17, 12:58 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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