IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 3:00 AM EDT649
FXUS63 KIND 210700
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
300 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be ending from west to
east this morning
- Breezy and cooler today...then dry, lighter winds and 70s for both
Tuesday and Wednesday
- Rain and t-storm chances return Thursday through early Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Synoptic Pattern and Mesoscale Details...
Early this overnight, radar data was showing areas of showers and
embedded thunderstorms have moved into the Wabash Valley well ahead of
a cold front that was moving into west central Illinois. The convection
was in an area of strong deep and low level shear but very weak
instability. Thus, lightning data was showing little in the way of
strikes. As the activity moved through Terre Haute, only a 29 mph gust
was observed. So, the potential for severe storms will be very low to
nil overnight and even the odds of strong storms with winds approaching
50 mph are low. Meanwhile, MRMS three hour radar estimated QPF was from
around 0.30 to 0.60 inches. This should not result in any new flooding
overnight.
HRRR radar reflectivity suggests the showers should be east of the area
by mid to late morning but obs and Hi-Res soundings suggest a stratocu
deck will spread across in the wake of a cold front, that should move
into the Wabash Valley shortly before 12z and into western Ohio, early
afternoon.
Today...
Scattered to numerous showers are expected to linger into east central
Indiana this morning but otherwise, the stratocu deck should gradually
mix out during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds in behind
the front along with drier air per Hi-Res soundings. BUFKIT Hi-Res
sounding momentum transfer also supports gusty southwest winds in the
wake of the front with gusts to 25+ knots possible. In addition,
soundings support mixing down from around 4K feet that should aid in
mixing out the stratocu deck. Cold air advection suggests afternoon
temperatures may only reach the middle 60s over the upper Wabash Valley
but temperatures over southeastern sections should at least reach the
lower 70s.
Tonight...
Surface high pressure over the area should result in winds becoming
light with decoupling and with a dry column good radiational cooling
potential. This should allow temperatures to bottom out much cooler
than the current with overnight lows in the middle and upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Weak surface ridging and a retracted mid-level pattern will promote
light breezes under mostly clear skies as the southerly flow brings
slow moderation through above normal levels. Can not rule out a
stray sprinkle/shower across far northwestern zones late Tuesday
night as a weak warm frontal zone advances into the southern Great
Lakes, yet overall dry conditions are expected. High temperatures
will trend upward through the 70s while morning minimums trend a
bit slower from the low 50s to mid-50s by Wednesday night.
Thursday through Sunday...
The surface ridge will depart to the east, leaving the Midwest amid
a broad fetch off of the Gulf...while rather weak surface low
pressure advances from the Texas Panhandle Thursday into the Great
Lakes by late Friday. Chances of rain showers will accompany the
return of precipitable water values into the 1.00-1.50 inch range
around the late Thursday to Friday night timeframe. What so far
looks to favor widespread light to moderate rainfall may well
include embedded heavier RW/TRW...although confidence in heavy
rainfall or any flooding is so far low. Guidance is continuing to
show an amplifying upper pattern through the late long-term,
bringing a large dome of Canadian surface high pressure across the
Great Lakes...with thew southern portions of this ridge providing
mainly dry and seasonable conditions on northeasterly breezes
through the weekend. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the
long term is 67/47.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Impacts:
- Winds 160-190 degrees with veer to 210-240 degrees after 08z-10z
and winds will gust up to 26 knots and higher early in
thunderstorms
- Showers with embedded storms will move across the terminals through
12z
- MVFR conditions are expected in convection and MVFR ceilings are
likely following convection
Discussion:
A cold front will move east across the terminals this morning.
Widespread convection including a few strong thunderstorms will proceed
the front and gusty winds will shift from southeast to southwest and
west in the wake of the front. MVFR ceilings will also follow the
front.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 3:00 AM EDT---------------
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