JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 10:15 AM EDT169
FXUS63 KJKL 211415 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1015 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring showers and possibly thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. A period of wet weather is also forecast
Thursday through Sunday.
- Normal to above normal temperatures are expected for the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
14Z sfc analysis shows a weakening cold front slipping through
Kentucky. Out ahead of this, a band of mainly light showers are
passing into eastern parts of the state. Currently temperatures
are coming off a quite mild night and vary from the mid 60s
northwest - with the ongoing pcpn - to the mid 70s in the still
dry southeast. Meanwhile, amid south to southwest winds of 5 to
10 mph - and a few higher gusts with the showers, dewpoints are
generally in the low to mid 60s west but closer to the mid 50s in
the east. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids, but also to include the
current radar and CAMs guidance into the afternoon. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 732 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
Updated the T/Td grids with the latest observations, no major
changes to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
Current satellite and radar shows a line of showers and
thunderstorms extending from northern Indiana down to east Texas,
with showers and storms also occurring along this line across
western Kentucky. This is a cold front associated with an upper
level and surface low currently over eastern Minnesota. This low
pressure will continue to lift north and east into Canada through
the day, while the cold front will slowly progress north and east
across Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. Southwest winds
will pick up along the front, with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Rainfall
amounts around a quarter inch should be expected today into
tonight, with heavier amounts closer to a half an inch most likely
over the Cumberland drainage basin. Most places can expect dry
weather to return behind the cold front by Tuesday. Areas of fog
will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures
today and tomorrow will generally be in the mid to upper 70s in
the afternoons.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
Shower chances return to eastern Kentucky Tuesday night and
Wednesday, as a warm front pushes north. Most areas that see
measurable rainfall will be along and south of the Hal-
Rogers/KY-80 corridor, with under a tenth of an inch being most
likely. Thursday through Sunday a series of shortwaves move across
the areas producing periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures generally remain in the upper 70s to low 80s through
next Sunday, with Saturday looking to be the coolest of the days
in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR conditions will start the TAF period, with CIGS slowly
lowering as a result of an approaching cold front. The
approaching front will cause showers to start as early as 13Z at
KSYM quickly followed by KSME and KLOZ, with ceilings lowering to
low end VFR. The best chance for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms looks to occur between 22Z and 02Z, with MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions during those times. After the front moves
through conditions will begin improving, with VFR conditions
likely returning to all TAF sites after 03Z. Valley fog
development is likely late tonight (generally after 06z)
especially where rain occurs today.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GINNICK/CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 10:15 AM EDT---------------
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