ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 1:36 AM EDT645
FXUS61 KILN 210536
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
136 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the region through tonight
before a cold front moves east across the area early Monday. This
will lead to occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily
tonight through early Monday afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier
conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A warmer and more
humid airmass will filter back into the region by late week, bringing
episodes of showers and storms back into the area by Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mesoanalysis shows that weak instability in the Tri-State has become
elevated. This will translate north northeast through the night in
association with strengthening low level flow. Thus far, convection
has really struggled to get started with only very light echoes and
marginally cooler cloud tops moving into northern Kentucky. But there
is still potential for scattered activity to move up through western
counties over the next several hours. Mid level lapse rates are
rather unimpressive, so the potential for any stronger convection
seems quite low.
Beyond that, line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will track in
from the west late, reaching near the Indiana-Ohio line by daybreak.
Little to no change to the forecast temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
The sfc low will continue to lift NE into the northern Great Lakes
into Monday. As it does, the warm front will clear the local area
toward daybreak as the cold front rapidly approaches from the W. Along
the front, SCT to numerous SHRA, along with a few TS, are likely
through the morning locally.
Drier conditions should evolve NW to SE into early afternoon as the
front pivots through the area. Dry air wrapping around on southern
base of the low center will advect into the region by Monday
afternoon, supporting steepening LL lapse rates and increased
vertical mixing. This will lead to very breezy conditions once again
by the afternoon, especially in areas that are able to clear out
sufficiently near/W of I-71 earlier in the daytime. SW winds on the
order of ~20kts and gusts to near 30kts are expected by the afternoon
amidst scattering cloud cover. Gusts should remain sub-advisory, but
certainly a few gusts close to 35kts (especially near/N of I-70) cannot
be ruled out in this well-mixed environment. Winds will subside
toward sunset and beyond as the vertical mixing decreases and the
pressure gradient relaxes.
Temps in the mid 70s Monday afternoon will dip into the upper 40s and
lower 50s by daybreak Tuesday as clearer skies build in from the NW
as sfc high pressure settles into the TN Vly. Some cloud cover may
linger in NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley into Tuesday morning,
keeping temps in these areas a bit warmer than for locales further to
the NW where clearer skies and weakening winds will establish some
good radiational cooling conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak ridging and quasi-zonal H5 flow move into the region on
Tuesday; higher than average heights translate to warm conditions
throughout the week. Closer to the surface, high pressure works its
way in, leading to a quiet and dry pattern through midweek.
The next chance for precipitation arrives late week as a weak
shortwave swings up from the four corners region, dragging a
deepening/maturing surface low along with it. A slug of moisture
moves into much of the Mid-Atlantic region and PWATs climb to 200%
of normal. Meanwhile temperatures rise into the upper 70s (low 80s?)
Wednesday/Thursday.
Low end PoPs are reintroduced on Thursday as the warm front lifts
through the region and the trailing cold front will push through
sometime between Thurs night- Saturday early hours. Pretty good
confidence that we'll have some thunder with this system given the
influx of moisture and warmth, but we'll have to wait for additional
details and clarity.
After the cold front/ low pressure system progress off to the east,
cold air advection moves in and temperatures fall to seasonal
normals for the weekend. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the
low dry the area out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The TAF period starts off quiet early this morning with VFR
conditions and light winds. The forecast quickly becomes a bit
trickier through the morning and into the afternoon as the chance
for showers and storms increases ahead of a cold front. The
likelihood for a period of MVFR ceilings also accompanies the
shower/storm probabilities. The modeled timing and locations for
shower/storm activity remains fairly uncertain so the details remain
fairly broad in the TAFs through 1800z. By this evening, FROPA is
likely to have occurred supporting an end to shower chances and a
return to VFR conditions.
Southerly winds from 5-10 knots remains in place through 1200z.
Winds veer to the southwest today and increase to around 20 knots
with higher gusts. Winds shift to the west by 0000z Tuesday and
begin to relax after sunset.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Campbell
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 21, 1:36 AM EDT---------------
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