JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 20, 4:44 AM EDT312
FXUS63 KJKL 200844
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.
- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.
- A wavering frontal boundary may affect the area later next
week, bringing more possibilities of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
Looking across CONUS currently, showers and thunderstorms along a
boundary are occurring from Texas up through Missouri. 500-mb
height analysis shows an upper level low just upstream of these
storms, over New Mexico. As the day unfolds this upper level low
and surface low will move northeast into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley.
For eastern Kentucky, a weak cold front will sag south through
the mid morning, leading to lower cloud heights, mainly along and
north of the Hal-Rogers/Kentucky-80 corridor. Patchy morning fog
will also be possible. As winds become light out of the south this
afternoon this boundary will effectively become a warm front and
begin retreating back north through the rest of the afternoon and
early evening. This will lead to cloud heights improving.
Temperatures today are expected to range from the upper 70s to
upper 80s from north to south. The NBM uses a daily running mean
average when calculating temperatures and is susceptible to
inaccuracies during periods of drastic pattern changes. A good
example of this can be seen in yesterday's forecasted highs in
the low 80s. The daily running average was pulling in a period of
previous weather that was anomalously cold. Since we were entering
a pattern of above average temperatures the NBM forecast high ran
cooler than what actually occurred (mid-upper 80s yesterday).
That is why the decision was made to use a 60/40 blend of the NBM
with the 50th percentile to bump temperatures a few degrees warmer
today.
Heading into Monday, the upper level and surface lows will
continue progressing north, into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Its
attached cold front will extend south through the Mississippi
Valley, including parts of Kentucky early in the morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will overtake the area through the day as the
cold front progresses east. Temperatures will be cooler, generally
remaining in the 70s. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest at
10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible. Higher gusts could
occur around or near any thunderstorm cores.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
By Monday evening, the cold front is modeled over eastern
Kentucky, with the low now over SE Canada. Thunderstorms may
linger into early Monday evening, but should taper with lingering
showers, as daytime heating is lost. Winds are also expected to
subside heading into the evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday, as the low continues to push further into
Canada the cold front tries to progress east as well, however a
strong high pressure located over SE CONUS will slow its
departure. Lingering showers can be expected across eastern
Kentucky Tuesday, mainly along and south of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80
corridor. A slight chance of showers (15-25% chance) lingers into
Wednesday, mainly south of the I-64 corridor. Similar to Monday,
temperatures will generally remain in the 70s Tuesday afternoon,
and warm into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday, while model consensus remains fairly
spread out, a series of shortwaves look to bring multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky, with the
greatest likelihood occurring on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
only exception is the possibility of localized MVFR conditions
in northerly upslope flow late in the night as a cold front sags
southeastward across eastern Kentucky. The greatest opportunity
for any sub-VFR ceilings will generally be north of the Hal Rogers
Pkwy./ KY-80 corridor. Any low ceilings will improve back to VFR
during the day on Sunday as the boundary lifts back north as a
warm front. These CIG reductions were to low confidence to include
in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK/CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK/GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 20, 4:44 AM EDT---------------
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