JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 18, 10:40 AM EDT277
FXUS63 KJKL 181440
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.
- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
Blended morning obs into the forecast without any meaningful
changes.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure east of Kentucky with a
tightening gradient of pressure on account of deep low pressure
working towards the Mississippi River from the Great Plains. This
has lead to increasing winds aloft but a decoupled boundary layer
for most through eastern Kentucky this night - yielding a decent
ridge to valley temperature difference. Specifically, readings
range from the upper 50s and low 60s on the hills and the more
open areas of the west to the low and mid 40s in the sheltered low
spots of the east. Meanwhile, under mostly clear skies, dewpoints
are mainly in the mid and upper 30s. This has made for poor
moisture recovery - outside of the valleys.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are holding in
good agreement aloft through the short term period. They all
depict eastern Kentucky caught up in a tussle between strong, but
compact, ridging over the Southeast and deep troughing extending
from the Desert Southwest, though the Plains, and up to the
Great Lakes. The energy and mid level southwest flow associated
with the extensive troughing will be kept to the northwest of
this part of the state on account of the burgeoning Southeast
ridge for the near term. By Saturday, though, the swath of energy
does dip south toward northern parts of the JKL CWA for a time as
a couple of strung out waves move past in that increasingly deep
layer southwest flow. The still small model spread supported using
the NBM as the starting point with minimal adjustments needed
through the period - mainly to include more of a terrain
distinction to the temperatures this morning and again tonight
along with slightly drier afternoon RH today and Saturday.
Sensible weather features very warm conditions into the start
of the weekend as breezy south to southwest winds kick in today
owing mainly to the fairly tight pressure gradient ahead of a
stalled frontal boundary to the northwest. Enough dry air in place
for the area and the increasing winds will make for a dicey
situation for fire weather concerns despite the continued robust
greenup well underway. Have gone ahead and issued a fire danger
statement (SPS) into the first part of the evening for this
situation as RH will bottom out near 25 percent with wind gusts as
high as 30 mph for a time. For tonight, another ridge to valley
temperature split can be expected with overall milder conditions.
For Saturday, the support aloft in the north may allow for a
period or two of showers and stray afternoon thunderstorms
sneaking into the area from the wavering of the nearby stalled
boundary. Outside of the areas with more clouds and rain chances
to the north, temperatures will be even warmer - likely reaching
the mid 80s.
The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
adding more terrain distinction to the temperatures this morning
and again tonight as well as nudging down the dewpoints/RH each
afternoon though Saturday. As for PoPs - added some details from
the CAMs for Saturday allowing for better chances in the far north
than depicted by the NBM guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
To start the forecast period, upper-level support has abandoned the
surface cold front that slowly approached the area at the beginning
off the weekend. Lingering shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue to exist from Saturday night through early Sunday morning.
The abandoned boundary will become stationary but another surface
low is expected to develop on the tail end of the abandoned surface
boundary on Sunday before lifting northeast into the Great Lakes by
early Monday morning. The stationary boundary will lift back to the
northeast as a warm front early Sunday afternoon bringing another
chance of showers and storms. As the secondary system lifts
northeast into the Great Lakes, the surface cold front will approach
the area and keep PoP chances through the day Monday into Monday
night before the front exits the area for early Tuesday morning.
Surface high pressure will build back into the region behind the
exiting front early Tuesday; however, models remain in agreement
with another system developing over the southern Plains. As this
occurs, another warm front is progged to lift through the area
Wednesday afternoon bringing increasing shower and storm chances.
Also at this same time, another system is forecast to move off the
northern Rockies with a trailing cold front and through the day
Thursday, the southern system will ride along the baroclinic zone
from the northern system leading to continued shower and storm
chances for the remainder of the forecast period.
Overall, the forecast period is expected to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to be range from the mid-
70s to mid-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low-
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
While VFR conditions prevail through the entire aviation forecast
period, low level wind shear will be a concern early this morning
as south southwesterly winds pick up just off the surface as high
as 40 kts. Wind shear will ease as heating/mixing occurs during
the day, but surface winds will then begin to gust up to around 25
kts. This evening, the sfc winds settle again but LLWS from the
south southwest at up to 50 kts will develop and carry through the
night into Saturday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 18, 10:40 AM EDT---------------
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