IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 19, 3:44 AM EDT560
FXUS63 KIND 190744 AAA
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
344 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms this morning capable of strong winds and
localized flooding.
- Decreasing rain chance later today through tonight with more rain
and potential flooding Sunday night.
- Generally near to above normal temperatures into next week with
periodic shower/storm chances.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
A small MCS over central Illinois should reach the Indiana border by
around 4:30am or shortly after. Nocturnal stabilization is weak
owing to warm advection strength, and when paired with a fairly deep
and persistent wind/RIJ structure, will likely not substantially
limit strong to severe wind potential over the next couple of hours.
This MCS should maintain its intensity into central Indiana
progressing through the state between 5:00am and 8:00am, with its
east-northeastward movement at around 60 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The synoptic pattern will feature a progressive northern stream
shortwave trough and a lagging upstream southern stream trough,
along with a persistent anomalous ridge across the east. This
configuration will result in a deep subtropical moisture plume
positioned across our region through the short term period. Neutral
to slowly rising mean heights suggest limited forcing for ascent.
Most of the forcing will be from southward moving remnant cold
front.
With this pattern, boundary-parallel flow and training resulting in
excessive rainfall would be a concern. Two limiting factors exist,
however; (1) limited synoptic-scale forcing, and (2) meager
instability amidst deep saturation and poor midlevel lapse rates.
HREF probability match mean has some >1.00" QPF amounts across
portions of central Indiana, tied to remnant convection currently in
Missouri moving through early this morning. Deep layer shear and
weak instability may be enough for some organization and strong
winds, with a low probability of severe winds in the 5:00am to
9:00am time frame.
Instability should be at a minimum after initial round of weakening
convection this morning and some overturning. Diurnal
destabilization will be minimal at best and preceding morning
remnant convection will have likely helped augment the frontal
position southward, leaving weak anafrontal convection and/or light
midlevel stratiform precipitation periodically into the afternoon.
Lingering light precipitation late in the day into the overnight is
possible, but limited instability and forcing should preclude
widespread coverage or heavier amounts. Coverage could increase by
daybreak as warm advection regime strengthens preceding the next
eastward migrating mid-latitude cyclone.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
The strongest period of forcing in the long term period, and thus
greatest rain chance, will be Sunday night into early Monday. A
frontal band of weakening convection is expected. Subsequent weak
cold advection will bring temperatures down to near normal Monday.
Weakly perturbed westerlies amidst building eastern mean heights
suggests a warming trend to around 5-10 degrees above normal and
limited opportunities for organized/widespread precipitation.
The synoptic pattern indicated in model ensemble data for the 8-14
day period looks to support above normal temperatures with near or
slightly above normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025
Impacts:
- Winds continuing to gust to 20-30KT overnight
- Periodic convection developing overnight...continuing into
Saturday morning
- MVFR conditions in heavier convection...and overall by 13Z
Saturday...with improvement to VFR likely Saturday evening
- At least scattered showers/t-storms continue through rest of TAF
period
Discussion:
Mainly 20-25KT gusts tonight may include a few gusts over 30KT amid
any sprinkles/isolated -RA. Periodic convection is expected to
develop towards pre-dawn hours, exhibiting a quick WSW-ENE storm
motion.
VFR ceilings should trend to low-VFR levels as convection expands
through the overnight. MVFR/IFR is possible in showers and
storms... with more widespread MVFR slowly arriving from the
northwest through pre-dawn hours.
Scattered to numerous showers Saturday is expected to include at
least isolated strong to possibly severe convection through 14Z.
MVFR conditions will prevail into Saturday evening, although
coverage of -SHRA will diminish slightly for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BRB
SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...AGM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 19, 3:44 AM EDT---------------
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