JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 17, 9:42 AM EDT828
FXUS63 KJKL 171342
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
942 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm weather will return for Friday through Monday.
- The next substantive chance at rain arrives during the weekend
and early next week, especially Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
Frost advisory was cancelled and morning obs were blended into the
forecast. Also made some adjustments for cooler valley low
temperature at times during the next week.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky as it is departing to the northeast. This
has kept skies mostly clear and winds light making for excelled
radiational cooling conditions. This set up a fairly large ridge
to valley temperature split this night such that currently
temperatures are running in the mid 40s on the hills and have
fallen to the low and mid 30s in the sheltered low spots.
Meanwhile, dewpoints generally range from the upper 30s and low
40s southwest to the low and mid 20s on the northeast ridges.
Expect areas of frost to be found in many of the valleys through
dawn.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term period. They
all depict troughing at 5h pulling further away to the northeast
today while ridging slides east from the Southern Plains. This
pattern evolution will transition northwest mid-level flow over
eastern Kentucky to zonal as the ridge settled into the Deep
South early Friday. Just ahead of this, a wave of energy will
pass through this part of the state later this afternoon and
early evening before the rising heights regime moves on in.
Upstream, deep troughing will be digging into the Desert
Southwest with deep southwest flow preceding the larger trough
through the Plains at mid levels. Closer to home, the southwest
flow spreads into Kentucky on Friday afternoon as the 5h ridging
slips to the Southeast. Just some weak energy impulses move
through the area before 00Z Saturday. The continued small model
spread supported using the NBM as the starting point with minimal
adjustments through the period - mainly to include more of a
terrain distinction to the temperatures this morning and again
tonight along with slightly drier afternoon RH today and Friday.
Sensible weather features a warmup beginning in earnest today and
then temperatures pushing into the 80s on Friday with breezy
southerly winds picking up to close out the work week. We will
also see a small chance for a light shower passing through later
this afternoon and into the early evening as a developing warm
front lifts through the area. For tonight, we will see enough
clearing by midnight to allow for more radiational cooling and a
decent ridge to valley split in the low temperatures tonight.
Friday will see well above normal temperatures owing to a good
amount of sunshine and increasingly gusty southerly winds.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding more terrain distinction to the temperatures this morning
and again tonight as well as tamping down the dewpoints/RH each
afternoon though Friday. As for PoPs - added some details from
the CAMs for this afternoon and early evening - beefing them up to
better reflect the latest HRRR guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
To summarize what's progged to happen before the long-term period
begins, a surface low moved out of the northern Rockies into the
Central Plains before lifting into the Great Lakes. While this
occurs, a warm front is expected to cross through the region which
will place us where the long-term period begins. At the start of the
period, weak surface high pressure will exist post-warm frontal in
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Increasing
shower and storm chances are expected beginning Saturday morning as
the system ejects into southern Canada and pulls the cold front
closer to the area. The best PoP chances will be across the
northwestern third of the CWA with decreasing PoP toward the West
Virginia/Virginia border. As upper-level support abandons the front,
the boundary will become stationary but a another surface low is
expected to develop on the tail end of the abandoned surface
boundary on Sunday before lifting northeast into the Great Lakes by
early Monday morning. The abandoned boundary will lift back to the
northeast as a warm front early Sunday afternoon. As the secondary
system lifts northeast into the Great Lakes, the surface cold front
will approach the area and keep PoP chances through the day Monday
into Monday night before the front exits the area for early Tuesday
morning.
Surface high pressure will build back into the region behind the
exiting front early Tuesday; however, models are in decent agreement
with another system developing over the southern Plains. As this
occurs, another warm front is progged to lift through the area
Wednesday afternoon bringing increasing shower and storm chances.
Also at this same time, another system is forecast to move off the
northern Rockies with a trailing cold front and through the day
Thursday, the southern system will ride along the baroclinic zone
from the northern system leading to continued shower and storm
chances for the remainder of the forecast period.
Overall, the forecast period is expected to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to be range from the mid-
70s to mid-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low-
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Sky cover is
expected to thicken and lower more substantially after 18Z as a
weak disturbance approaches. A few very light showers are possible
at SME or LOZ late in the day from this, but most locations will
likely see only virga. Winds will be variable at around 5 kts or
less this morning before turning southeasterly at 5 to 10 kts
by midday. Sfc winds go light and variable after sunset and
continue through the night. However, some LLWS from the south will
likely kick in towards midnight at up to 45 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 17, 9:42 AM EDT---------------
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