JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:45 PM EDT840
FXUS63 KJKL 131745
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with
highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100
degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through
Wednesday.
- Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible next week as more tropical moisture builds into the
region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus bubbling up over the
mountains near the Virginia border late this morning as a subtle
upper level perturbation approaches from the northwest. This
warranted an increase in the forecast sky cover over counties
adjacent to the Virginia border. As the disturbance aloft passes
this afternoon, a few more robust cumulus capable of producing
sprinkles may develop over the high terrain, primarily Pine and
Black mountains. A strong mid-level cap should inhibit the
development of any mature showers or thunderstorms. Accordingly,
a slight chance of sprinkles was added in those mountain areas.
Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky with a frontal boundary well off to
the northwest. This high has led to another night of light winds
and mostly clear skies resulting in excellent radiational cooling
conditions. As such, readings now vary from the mid 60s on the
ridges to the lower 50s in many of the sheltered valley spots.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 50s north and in
the upper 50s to low 60s south. Some river valley fog is also
again evidenced on the satellite fog channel again this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
reasonably good agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict northwest mid-level flow over
eastern Kentucky through the period with a couple of impulses
moving by into Friday evening. This happens as the region remains
between general troughing to the north and a burgeoning 5h ridge
to the southwest. A weak impulse will pass by northeast of the JKL
CWA today even as heights rise but a more impressive wave then
cuts through the Ohio Valley from the northwest late tonight and
into Friday. This will send some weak 5h height falls through
this part of the state on Friday as the northwest flow strengthens
for a brief time. The model spread through the end of the work
week remains at a fairly small level so the NBM was again used as
the starting point for the short term grids with little deviation
aside from the incorporation of some terrain distinctions for
temperatures early this morning and again tonight. The latest CAMs
runs were also incorporated into the PoP grids for Friday.
Sensible weather features warmer days ahead with just a small
threat for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The convection
will occur as a weak cold front slips through the area with only
limited upper level support to work with. Although clouds start
to increase ahead of this boundary tonight, still expect enough
radiational cooling in the evening and early overnight for a small
ridge to valley temperature split to set up along with a touch of
river valley fog. The front will also not slow down temperatures
much with many places seeing highs near 90 degrees to close out
the work week - similar to those of today.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting
the temperatures in order to better represent terrain details this
morning and, to a lesser extent, tonight. PoPs were nudged up
during the day Friday in accordance with the latest guidance from
the CAMS.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
The period begins with upper-level northwesterly flow, as the trough
responsible for Friday afternoon's shower activity, pivots through
the region. Behind the exiting trough, ridging is forecast to build
in from the southwest with surface high pressure beginning to
establish itself over the region for the remainder of the weekend
into next week. As the high shifts north and east, increasing
temperatures are expected as highs will climb into the low to mid-
90s for Sunday and Monday; this coupled with increasing moisture
will allow for heat indices to approach 100 degrees. Models continue
to remain in agreement for next week as surface high pressure will
remain across the area. However, as the surface high shifts to the
northeast, increasing Gulf moisture will allow for disorganized
shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the period
with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-90s and heat indices
in the upper-90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
VFR flight conditions will prevail throughout the period, outside
of the river valleys where fog will be found after 04Z tonight. A
sparse to scattered cumulus field south of I-64 this afternoon
will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Additional high level clouds are anticipated to spread southeast
late tonight and Friday morning ahead of a weak cold front. Winds
will be light and variable at less than 5 kts into Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 1:45 PM EDT---------------
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