IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:54 PM EDT189
FXUS63 KIND 121854
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Major flooding continues on the lower White River.
- Significant river flooding continuing through at least the next 1
to 2 weeks in some spots on the lower White and lower Wabash
- Mostly Sunny and Warmer today. Increasing Clouds tonight
- Breezy and warmer Sunday.
- Isolated strong to severe storms possible southeast on Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
High pressure sits over central Indiana this afternoon, providing
ample sunshine today with calm winds.
Overnight and through tomorrow, the high will push off to the east,
placing the region under southerly flow and WAA. High temperatures
will warm to the 60s tomorrow and nearing 70 for the SW counties
where southern flow will be strongest. Winds and cloud coverage will
increase as well as the high pressure moves out. Tighter pressure
gradients form between the exiting high and a surface low forming
over the east-central Plains. Expect gusts of around 20-30 mph from
midday on, mainly across the western half of the forecast area.
There is a non-zero chance of a few showers Sunday as there will be
increased lift but not confident that there will be enough moisture
to contend with for more than a few pop-ups. Keeping very low PoPs
for now as it seems more likely that there will not be any showers,
but should that probability increase, will update PoPs to reflect
such.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
Monday...
A stronger upper level low will move into the northern Great Lakes,
with an associated surface low pressure system. The cold front from
this system will move through central Indiana mainly during the
early to mid afternoon hours.
Shear will be decent, but instability will be relatively weak. There
is the potential for some convective inhibition will remain into the
afternoon as well.
Given the above, especially with the timing of the front, feel that
the severe threat will be low and mainly confined to the
southeastern forecast area which will have the most time to heat up
and increase instability.
Moisture isn't great with this system, so will keep PoPs in the
chance category or lower with the highest PoPs in the east where
better instability will reside.
Highs will generally be in the 60s with perhaps around 70 southeast.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Cool northwest flow will bring temperatures back to below normal for
Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear Tuesday
night. Winds may stay up enough to help prevent frost formation in
areas that dip into the mid 30s, but will have to wait until details
get clearer. Wednesday will be warmer with sunshine.
Thursday Through Saturday...
A couple of systems will move through the area during this time.
Uncertainty remains on the details though, making it more difficult
to get specific with PoPs. Will broadbrush chance PoPs for much of
this period. Temperatures will depend on timing of the systems and
rain coverage, but the potential for above normal temperatures will
occur during this period.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
Impacts:
- Southerly winds tomorrow midday and beyond above 10 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Strong high
pressure centered over IN will drift across the TAF sites, providing
light winds and unlimited cigs most of the day.
As the high pushes east of Indiana on tonight, southerly return flow
will begin and forecast soundings suggest the arrival of some high
VFR Cigs, which will be of little impact. Tomorrow morning to
midday, wind speeds will start to pick up as well. By the end of the
24 hr period, southerly winds will increase to above 10 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 2:54 PM EDT---------------
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