CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 9:38 AM EDT676
FXUS61 KCLE 121338
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered across the region today into
Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area on Sunday
evening. Low pressure will move through the northern Great Lakes
on Monday and extend a cold front across the local area by
Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:30 AM Update...
Just some minor changes to expand slight chance PoPs west
through north central Ohio this morning. Light radar returns
crossing Lake Erie will bring some sprinkles and/or drizzle
until some drier air finally starts to work in from the west
this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no
changes.
Previous Discussion...
Minor changes to the forecast this morning. The cloud deck is
sluggish to expand westward and have slowed down the sky cover
progression with a strong dichotomy between clear skies west and
low stratus east. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Previous Discussion...
The forecast for today remains fairly stagnant as high pressure
enters the region. For the eastern half of the area, trapped low
level moisture and weak north flow off Lake Erie will continue
to support low stratus in the region with periods of fog and low
visibility and perhaps some stray drizzle or mist into NE OH and
NW PA. The stratus will expand westward some early in the day.
Otherwise, high pressure will continue to build into the region,
keeping the western half of the forecast area clear. This system
will be centered across the area tonight and dry air should
enter the region and allow for the low clouds to scour out this
evening. Highs will be in the 50s west to low-to-mid 40s east.
Another cool night will be expected with lows in the 30s.
For Sunday, the surface high transitions eastward and a warm
front will approach and move through the area. Some isentropic
lift ahead of the front could generate some showers in Northwest
Ohio and will have some slight chance to chance PoPs on Sunday,
as there should be some light rain in the region, but nothing to
write home about. With the lower clouds out of the region and
the approaching front, highs should be in the 50s across the
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather is expected for the first two days of the work week
as an unseasonably deep upper trough settles into the Great Lakes
and Northeast. Low pressure associated with the upper trough will
lift from the upper Mississippi Valley towards Lake Superior Sunday
night, lifting a warm front across the local area. This low will
drift east across the northern Great Lakes on Monday while deepening
to <995mb, pushing a strong cold front across the forecast area from
midday through the afternoon. This low will drift east across
Ontario and into Quebec Monday night and Tuesday, likely bottoming
out with a minimum central pressure of near or a bit below 990mb
early Tuesday. The low will begin slowly filling while drifting east
and merging with a coastal low near Nova Scotia Tuesday night.
Maintain low POPs (20-30% type stuff) for rain showers Sunday night
due to some isentropic lift aloft ahead of the lifting warm front,
with POPs drying out from southwest to northeast overnight into
early Monday. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 40s to low
50s, warmest west and with perhaps some non-diurnal trend late.
The main focus for more impactful weather remains Monday with that
strong cold frontal passage during the afternoon. We should be dry
in the warm sector through at least midday with a nice cap at the
base of an elevated mixed layer/EML as we wait for a combination of
increasing forcing for ascent and warmer/more humid low-levels.
Guidance suggests showers and some storms developing along the front
during the afternoon as increasing forcing and warming/moistening
low levels gradually erode the cap. Guidance disagrees on exactly
how quickly convection develops and how fast the front sweeps
through. The 0z GFS and NAM are on the quicker side with the frontal
passage and in terms of shower/thunder development...and as a result
do not allow much instability to build into our forecast area. The
0z European/Canadian models show a slower frontal passage and take a
bit longer to start convecting. The presence of an EML (with 500-
700mb lapse rates of 7-8C/km) and approximately 50kt of effective
deep-layer shear on the nose of a 70kt+ 500mb jet streak suggest the
potential for fast-moving convection to produce damaging winds and
large hail where sufficient destabilization occurs, though with
surface temperatures struggling to reach 70F and dew points
struggling to hit 60F it will likely be hard to develop more than
400-750 J/KG of MLCAPE, which is rather marginal but just enough for
a severe threat. Given the model disagreement discussed above,
confidence in this severe threat playing out is highest across our
southeastern counties, decreasing farther to the north. The SPC Day
3 outlook depicts a Slight Risk (risk level 2/5) focused to our
south/southeast but clipping locations south of a Marion-Mansfield-
Akron-Youngstown line, bracketed by a marginal risk another 1-2
tiers of counties to the north/northwest. This seems like a
reasonable starting point. Highs on Monday will reach the mid-upper
60s with breezy conditions. QPF amounts remain under 0.50" and are
highest across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA.
A relative dry break is anticipated Monday night as lows settle well
into the 40s. A potent shortwave and associated secondary cold front
will cross the area Tuesday morning/early afternoon, bringing an
increase in shower potential and a stronger push of cold air
advection. This will lead to Tuesday being a mostly cloudy,
seasonably chilly, windy and showery day...particularly across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA, with shower activity more hit or miss
and likely decreasing through the afternoon into Northwest OH. Highs
on Tuesday will only warm modestly, ranging from the mid 40s to low
50s. Guidance suggests deepening boundary-layer mixing into about
40kt of flow aloft by Tuesday afternoon, supporting surface gusts in
the 30-40 MPH range. Will need to monitor trends in the gust
forecast as some models have slightly stronger flow aloft with NBM
guidance depicting low but non-zero probabilities (generally 10-40%,
highest across parts of Northwest and North Central OH) for advisory-
level gusts (46+ MPH) across the area on Tuesday.
High pressure will start inching in from the west Tuesday night as
chilly/moist cyclonic flow beneath upper troughing persists across
the eastern half of the area. While locations west of Sandusky-
Mansfield will confidently be dry Tuesday night, locations to the
east will have to deal with continued lake enhanced precip chances
through the night as 850mb temperatures bottom out at -6C to -9C with
deep synoptic moisture to 700mb progged to linger through the
night across far Northeast OH/Northwest PA. Increased POPs
notably with this update, with chance wording (30-50%) as far
west as Lorain/Medina/Akron/Youngstown and likely wording
(60-70%) for the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the 30s, with higher terrain locations
in the snowbelt likely getting to or a bit below freezing. This
will allow most locations seeing precip to mix with or change to
snow through the night. Am a bit more impressed with the lake
enhanced/upslope precip setup this morning with guidance
suggesting a slightly more amplified trough and better synoptic
moisture hanging back west through Tuesday night. If these
trends are correct some accumulations would be likely in the
higher terrain of the snowbelt, particularly in Erie County
PA...though amounts shouldn't get out of hand.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure slides through Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering lake
enhanced precip ends on Wednesday, with dry weather then persisting
through much of Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal on
Wednesday (highs in the 40s east and 50s west), inching towards 60
on Thursday. There have been some pretty wholesale changes to the
projected weather pattern to end the week. Prior updates focused on
a deep trough arriving in the Great Lakes by Friday, with a strong
cold frontal passage ahead of it. All operational models and
ensembles have trending towards much more ridging over the southern
and eastern U.S. to end the week with a much less aggressive trough
diving into the Midwest out of Canada. This leads to a much warmer
forecast for Friday and a much slower cold frontal passage, not
until Friday night or Saturday if the current models are to be
believed. These trends are significant, consistent on pretty much
all guidance, and have been ongoing for a couple of runs, so believe
they're largely correct trends. Have POPs in the forecast from
Thursday afternoon through Saturday due to a combination of rain
chances with the warm front and subsequent cold front, with the
highest POPs focused Friday afternoon into Friday night when the
cold front looks to move through. Stay tuned for updates as
additional adjustments are possible if not likely. The GFS and ECMWF
advect a very impressive EML east ahead of the cold front on Friday
and show plenty of flow aloft for organized convection. Given this,
we will need to monitor for convective/severe potential with the
cold front if the general idea currently presented is correct.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
There continues to be a strong divide across the airspace
between low stratus and non-VFR and clear conditions. The low
cloud deck will continue to try to expand westward today but the
trends are less than the previous forecast and there may only
be a brief period of MVFR at KCLE and perhaps no MVFR at all at
KMFD. High pressure will build in from the west today and scour
out the lower clouds by this evening with all sites trending to
VFR. A warm front will enter for Sunday and the first bit of
clouds will enter KFDY and KTOL by the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and generally less than 10 kt with north to
northwest to start and then southerly for the end of the TAF
period in NW OH.
Outlook...Scattered rain showers with non-VFR are possible
Sunday. Non-VFR with rain showers are expected Monday and
Tuesday. Non-VFR ceilings possible in NE OH/NW PA on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds through this evening as high pressure
slides through the region. South-southeast winds of less than 15kt
develop overnight tonight through Sunday night, allowing tranquil
marine conditions to continue through the rest of the weekend.
Winds will shift southwesterly Monday afternoon and increase to 15-
25kt into Monday night with a cold frontal passage. A secondary
front with a stronger push of cold air crosses during the day
Tuesday, increasing winds to 20-30kt and shifting winds more west
and eventually northwesterly. Northwest winds persist 15-25kt
through Tuesday night before gradually diminishing from west to east
Wednesday into Wednesday evening as high pressure builds from the
west. 2-4 foot waves will build over the open waters east of the
Islands on Monday, increasing to 3-6 feet and pushing into the
nearshore waters Monday night. Waves will increase to 4-7 feet west
of the Islands and 6-10 feet east of the Islands on Tuesday. Waves
will remain elevated Tuesday night before gradually diminishing from
west to east Wednesday into Wednesday night, falling below 4 feet
across the entire lake by late Wednesday evening. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed for all zones beginning with the cold
frontal passage Monday afternoon/evening, with eastern zones likely
needing headlines to run through Wednesday evening. Winds will not
be far off from a gale on Tuesday as cold air aloft deepens over the
lake with winds a few thousand feet aloft of 35-40kt. Current NBM
probabilities for a gale are as high as 30-50% over the central
basin and 10-30% elsewhere. Will also need to monitor water levels
on the west end Monday night into Tuesday morning.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 12, 9:38 AM EDT---------------
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