PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 5:56 PM EDT911
FXUS61 KPBZ 102156
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
556 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Intermittent rain showers expected through early Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures expected to rise through Monday. Dry
weather expected from Saturday till Monday, when another frontal
passage is likely to bring showers through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered light showers continue into the overnight hours.
- Some areas of fog possible overnight.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest analysis this evening drapes a cold front just into our
eastern Ohio counties characterized by a wind shift to
northwesterly and a drop in dew points. A narrow line of showers
is developing along the front in a stable airmass as cloud
coverage locally has remained thick and muted any hope of
destabilization. The one exception is our eastern Ohio counties
from Muskingum to Noble to Monroe where some scattering in the
past hour to two has allowed for temperatures to rise into the
mid to upper 50s. There remains a very short time window for
potential more convective shower development with fumes of
SBCAPE, though the threat for rotation within said showers is
becoming less and less as surface flow veers and low level
curvature is eliminated.
This stagnant environment persists into the overnight as the
cold front passes and advects slightly drier air in in its wake.
Despite that, as the core of an upper low moves overhead, broad
synoptic lift acting on lingering low-level saturation will be
enough to support a low stratus deck and continuing
drizzle/light showers. Can't rule out some fog development
either with wind becoming light and a still saturated surface,
but stratus may win out and fog may be a more localized feature
where wind is the calmest and showers do not coexist.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances linger through midday Saturday.
- Dry conditions by Saturday night.
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A reinforcing shortwave is expected to dig into the upper-Midwest,
rounding the trough, and forcing secondary low development in the
southern Appalachians. This mid-level forcing may briefly make for a
secondary closed low, before an elongated area of closed flow
develops along the east coast. This will, in turn, bring the surface
low up along its eastern flank, overspreading rain from Georgia to
Maine Friday afternoon.
In the current forecast, the main low track utilizing the best
moisture and forcing is to the east of the Appalachians which will
keep the heaviest precipitation closer to Atlantic coast.
Some snow is again possible in the highest terrain in West Virginia
on Saturday with cold air wrapping around the backside of the low.
Since most of this is forecast during the day with marginal freezing
temperatures, no impacts are expected.
By Saturday night, expect dry conditions over the region which is
expected to persist through Sunday.&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Uncertainty in the early week cold frontal passage.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble clustering is much more confident in the upper low
departure late Saturday into Sunday with ridging through Sunday and
Monday, which will warm temperatures back up to near/above normal.
By late Monday, the next trough is forecast to pass, which will
bring the next chances of rain and a cool down. By Tuesday at 8pm,
ensemble guidance has eastern upper-level troughing behind a cold
front. There is strength uncertainty with the trough and adjacent
cold front.
There is uncertainty in how fast the trough will exit the region.
There is a potential for the trough to temporarily stall and not
exit our region until Thursday. The ridge that is expected to build
in appears to be temporary as there is an indication of a trough
moving back into the area by Friday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Uncertainty in the early week cold frontal passage.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble clustering is much more confident in the upper low
departure late Saturday into Sunday with ridging through Sunday and
Monday, which will warm temperatures back up to near/above normal.
By late Monday, the next trough is forecast to pass, which will
bring the next chances of rain and a cool down. By Tuesday at 8pm,
ensemble guidance has eastern upper-level troughing behind a cold
front. There is strength uncertainty with the trough and adjacent
cold front.
There is uncertainty in how fast the trough will exit the region.
There is a potential for the trough to temporarily stall and not
exit our region until Thursday. The ridge that is expected to build
in appears to be temporary as there is an indication of a trough
moving back into the area by Friday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread rain has mostly moved east of PIT to kick off the 18z
TAF period. Widespread IFR ceilings are settling into the area
as a surface low currently centered over northern Ohio
encroaches on the area from the west. Additional scattered
shower activity remains possible through the evening. There is
also limited potential (20-30% chance) for a couple flashes of
lightning along and south of I-70 (ZZV to HLG to MGW) between
22z and 03z. However, given the low confidence, did not include
it in this TAF cycle.
IFR conditions prevail overnight, including probabilities around
20-40% (locally higher in typical trouble spots like FKL) for
visibilities occasionally dipping below a half mile between 06z
and 14z. Ceilings will be slow to improve (if at all) Friday
morning due to a lack of any dry air surge to scour out low-
level moisture. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the best
chance for improvement above IFR will be lowland areas
along/south of the I-70 corridor up into the PIT/AGC metro, and
not until the tail end of the period (after 16z Friday).
Meanwhile, probabilities for IFR ceilings in the ridges and
lowland areas north/northwest of Pittsburgh remain elevated
(30-60%). Even where improvement does occur, probabilities for
ceilings at or below MVFR remain high (>80%).
Outlook...
Restrictions are likely to continue, along with rain and snow
showers, Friday through Saturday night as an upper low drifts
across the region. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger/Lupo
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
LONG TERM...Shallenberger/Lupo
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 5:56 PM EDT---------------
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