BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 6:36 AM EDT489
FXUS61 KBOX 071036
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
636 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal boundary
to the south will bring periods of rain and high elevation snow
today, with spotty light rain, snow or drizzle tonight. Then a
strong cold front sweeps through the region late tonight and
Tuesday morning followed by blustery and cold conditions Tuesday
into Wednesday. Warming up toward the end of the week, but
turning unsettled again with showers at times, which will likely
linger through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM update...
Deep moisture plume within the right entrance region of the
upper jet has resulted in precip axis across SNE this morning.
Ptype is snow over the Berkshires and changing to snow in the
Worcester Hills. Best chance of minor accum up to an inch will
be over the Berkshires and near NH border in north central MA
where temps near 32F, but steadier precip will begin to shift
south of northern MA this morning. Still mid 30s in the rest of
the Worcester Hills which will limit accums. Forecast on track.
Previous discussion...
Key Messages:
* Period of rain today with minor snow accumulation over the
Berkshires and Worcester Hills
Stalled frontal boundary will remain south of New Eng as low pres
emerges off the mid Atlc coast this afternoon. Deep moisture plume
within right entrance region of upper jet resulting in expanding
area of precip from western PA and moving into SNE early this
morning. Forcing from favorable jet dynamics and mid level boundary
acting on deep moisture across SNE will result in periods of rain
through the day.
Low level colder air below 850 mb from the north is spilling
southward into the region and cooling from top down. This will
result in some wet snow over the higher elevations in the Berkshires
and Worcester Hills. But lack of heavy precip and marginal surface
temps with April sun angle will limit any accums to non paved
surfaces and probably looking at just a slushy coating to an inch
here. As low levels cool through the morning, we may see rain mix
with snow in lower elevations in the interior and hills in northern
CT and NW RI but no accum expected as temps probably not dropping
below 35F. Even in higher elevations, will probably see snow flip to
rain at times this afternoon with light precip.
Chilly day today with temps remaining in the 30s for many locations,
with lower 40s portions of CT valley and RI/SE MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A strong cold front moves through late tonight and Tue morning
followed by partial clearing and strong wind gusts
* Unseasonably cold Tuesday afternoon with wind chills falling into
the upper teens and 20s by days end
Low pres south of New Eng will be tracking across the Benchmark
tonight as robust upper trough and strong cold front approaches from
the west. Deep moisture plume will be confined to Cape/Islands this
evening where steadier rainfall will likely continue before tapering
off overnight. Otherwise, mid level drying moves in from the west so
precip will become light and spotty and may see areas of drizzle and
fog develop. Will have to watch for spotty freezing drizzle over the
higher elevations where temps will be near freezing.
The cold front sweeps through the region late tonight and early Tue
and may be accompanied by a brief rain/snow shower. This will be
followed by improving conditions Tue as much drier air moves in.
Sunshine will develop, then expect sct-bkn diurnal CU developing in
the afternoon as upper trough and cold pool approaches. The main
story for Tue will be the gusty west winds that develop in the
strong cold advection. Soundings suggest gusts to 30-40 mph with low
risk for a few 50 mph gusts over higher terrain in MA. 850 mb temps
fall to -10 to -12C Tue so it will be a cold day for early April.
Highs will hold in the 30s across the interior high terrain, with
low-mid 40s in the coastal plain, but temps will be falling into the
30s here mid-late afternoon. Wind chills will be falling into the
upper teens and 20s by late in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Continued cool and breezy weather on Wednesday
* Warming trend Thursday and Friday with a return to wet conditions.
* Wet and unsettled weather continues into next weekend, but details
remain uncertain this far out.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night
It will be cold Tuesday night as the core of the polar airmass moves
overhead. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid-20s, with
temperatures ranging from the single digits in high terrain to teens
near the coasts. Continued cool and windy conditions on Wednesday,
albeit not as gusty as Tuesday. 850mb winds decrease down to 20-
30mph, but with westerly winds and good mixing to around 800mb,
those 20-30mph winds will mix to the surface. High temperatures
wont rebound much from Tuesday, staying in the low 40s across the
interior to upper 40s along the coastal plain. The wind chill index
will make it feel like the 30s in the afternoon. Winds become calm
after sunset on Wednesday, setting up for good radiational cooling
conditions and another night of lows in the 20s.
Thursday and Friday.
Winds turn southerly on Thursday in response to an approaching warm
front and surface low over the Great Lakes. Temps rebound into the
low 50s, but cloudy and wet conditions return. Rain chances don't
increase until Thursday evening into Friday as better upper-level
forcing arrives.
Saturday and Sunday.
Guidance remains in good agreement heading into next weekend as a
deep trough stretching from the Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle
reaches the East Coast. This will bring continued wet and unsettled
weather to the region next weekend. However, with this system being
a week out, details remain uncertain, as the pattern could easily
change between now and then.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12z update...
Through tonight...Moderate confidence.
Rain with elevation snow has overspread the region but sill
mostly VFR-MVFR. Conditions will lower to IFR through the
morning. IFR-LIFR developing later this afternoon into tonight
with areas of fog and light rain/drizzle or higher elevation
rain-snow mix.
Tuesday...High confidence.
Strong cold front passage by 12z followed by improving
conditions to VFR and increasing W-WNW winds developing. Gusts
to 30-40 kt.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Mainly rain at BOS with brief RA/SN mix possible after 12z.
Lowering cigs to IFR later this morning, with chance of LIFR
cigs and vsbys dropping below 2 miles later afternoon and evening.
BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
* Gale Watch in effect Tuesday.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
A period of E-NE gusts to 20+ kt expected today as low pres tracks
to the south. Diminishing wind tonight, then strong cold front
passage early Tue will be followed by gale force westerly gusts
to 35 kt. Gale watches continue. Periods of rain into this
evening.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KJC/KP
MARINE...KJC/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 7, 6:36 AM EDT----------------
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