CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:06 AM EDT668
FXUS61 KCLE 101106
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly move through the region today and exit
to the northeast for Friday. A secondary low pressure system
will move through the central Appalachians and up the East Coast
on Friday into Friday night. High pressure will enter from the
west for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain and snow is into all of NE OH and NW PA and have extended
the categorical PoPs all the way east starting now with
precipitation expected to continue through the afternoon. Rain
is trailing off a bit faster than expected in the western
portions of the forecast area, but with low cloud and visibility
will leave some PoPs given that there could be some sprinkles on
the windshields for the morning commute.
Previous Discussion...
A broad area of rain continues across the forecast area this
morning as low pressure will be slow to move through the region.
The northeast side of this area of rain is actually able to fall
as a mix with snow, as temperatures are able to wet bulb down
to freezing to allow for some flakes at KHZY and KGKJ. Snow will
remain possible in far NE OH and NW PA over the next several
hours before temperatures warm well above freezing and allow for
a full transition to rain. The low pressure system will progress
east through the day progressing from South Central Indiana this
morning to near Youngstown by evening and rain should persist
ahead of this feature, albeit coverage will become more
scattered from west to east as the low approaches. The low will
exit tonight into Friday and flow across the region will flip to
the northwest, allowing for a colder air to return with a lake
effect component, so some lingering clouds and perhaps some
showers will last into Friday in NE OH/NW PA and have some
slight chance to chance PoPs remaining. Overall, the
thermodynamic environment isn't super exciting to go bonkers
with PoPs and rain potential, so will remain conservative for
now. Weak flow and abundant low level moisture across the region
will allow for low clouds and intermittent fog throughout the
period and weather conditions outside of the rain/snow will be
rather dreary. High temperatures will remain cold in the 40s for
today and Friday. With clouds in the region, low temperatures
will remain in the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough extending south across the far eastern CONUS
will continue to gradually shift east at the beginning of the short
term period. This will allow the surface low centered over the Mid-
Atlantic Coast to also gradually push east. Before that fully
happens, moisture wrapping around the low will continue to advect
across the eastern portion of the CWA. Given the very limited
support for shower development, opted to isolated shower potential
closest to the low across the far eastern counties. Confidence is
not high in how long these showers will linger, so opted to keep
slight chance PoPs across these counties into Saturday afternoon.
Once this trough finally pushes east, an upper level ridge and
associated high will build over the area allowing all precipitation
to end by Saturday night. Dry conditions will persist through the
end of the period with peaks of sunshine likely. In addition to a
break in precipitation, temperatures will be on a warming trend with
highs on Saturday climbing into the upper 40s to low 50s before
increasing into the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows
to start the period will drop into the low to mid 30s before
gradually warming to only drop into the 40s by Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unfortunately, dry conditions appear to be short lived as another
upper level trough dives south across the central US, moving an
associated surface low northeast through the western Great Lakes
region. Exact placement and timing of this system diverge amongst
models, however there is growing confidence that a warm front will
lift north late Sunday/early Monday before an associated cold front
pushes east Monday evening into the overnight hours. Behind the warm
front, ample moisture associated with southwest flow looks to push
across the area with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s
to low 70s. In addition, some long term models including the ECMWF
and regional Canadian model suggest that a strong LLJ nudges north
across the area. With all these conditions present, there is a non-
zero potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon,
however confidence remains low given the divergence in models but it
is worth noting.
As the cold front pushes east, expect another shift back to cooler
temperatures with the potential for some lake effect rain/snow
showers to impact the snowbelt area into Wednesday morning. 850mb
temperatures are expected to fall into the -3 to -5C range,
providing enough instability over Lake Erie for shower development,
but given expected daytime highs in the mid 40s to low 50s, not
expecting any notable accumulations at this point. Any accumulation
that happens will be over night given temperatures will fall into
the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure moving through the region has allowed for a mixed
bag of aviation conditions across the terminals. KTOL remains
socked in with IFR/LIFR and this will continue through the
period. A large swath of LIFR in NW OH and northern Indiana will
curl into Northwest Ohio over the next couple of hours and get
KFDY and eventually KMFD. Otherwise, the remaining terminals
will be rather variable with IFR settling in through the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Low pressure moving through
the region this afternoon and evening and a flip to northwest
flow should allow for IFR and LIFR conditions to overtake most
of the terminals later today. A well saturated low level
atmosphere should keep low ceilings throughout the TAF period
and some low visibility with fog may try to develop tonight as
the low fully exits the region and high pressure builds in from
the west. Winds will be less than 10 kt through the period with
east to southeast winds favored ahead of the system and north to
northwest winds favored behind the system.
Outlook...Non-VFR is likely to persist through Friday night with
low ceilings and intermittent rain chances.
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will track east just south of Lake Erie today,
allowing for winds north of the low to remain from the east-
northeast at 10-15 knots. There is a potential for patchy fog across
the Lake today, especially early this morning. As the low continues
east this evening, winds on the back side will gradually shift to
become north-northwesterly at 15-20 knots, with the strongest winds
across the western and central basins. These northerly winds may
warrant a Small Craft Advisory given the onshore flow, however with
it remaining very marginal at this point, opted for no headlines
this morning. Winds will weaken to 5-10 knots Friday into Saturday
from the north as high pressure builds east behind the departing
low. These winds will become more northwesterly early Sunday on the
back edge of the high. Winds will gradually become more southerly
late Sunday into Sunday night as a warm front lifts north. On
Monday, a low pressure system over the western Great Lakes will move
a cold front east, increasing southwest winds ahead of the boundary
to 15-20 knots. Behind the cold front, winds will become west-
northwesterly and increase to 20-25 knots with waves building along
the southern lakeshore to 4-6 feet. This period will likely warrant
another Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Apr 10, 7:06 AM EDT---------------
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